IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2013-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. John C Bluedorn
  • Rupa Duttagupta
  • Mr. Jaime Guajardo
  • Miss Nkunde Mwase

Abstract

Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels; more competitive real exchange rates; and better structural reforms and institutions. The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. John C Bluedorn & Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Miss Nkunde Mwase, 2013. "The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?," IMF Working Papers 2013/132, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40598
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    2. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    3. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mrs. Sarwat Jahan, 2012. "Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2012/049, International Monetary Fund.
    4. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-1250.
    5. Tilman Brück, "undated". "Macroeconomic Effects of the War in Mozambique -," QEH Working Papers qehwps11, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    6. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    7. Chris Papageorgiou & Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Economic Diversification in LICs; Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6507.
    9. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2010. "Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 119-171, April.
    10. Susan M. Collins, 1991. "Saving Behavior in Ten Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 349-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Anke E. Hoeffler, 2000. "The Augmented Solow Model and the African Growth Debate," CID Working Papers 36A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    12. Abiad, Abdul & Bluedorn, John & Guajardo, Jaime & Topalova, Petia, 2015. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-26.
    13. Frederick Solt, 2009. "Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database," LIS Working papers 496, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    14. Ms. Catherine McAuliffe & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Mr. Masafumi Yabara, 2012. "The East African Community: Prospects for Sustained Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/272, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Era Dabla-Norris & Raphael Espinoza & Sarwat Jahan, 2015. "Spillovers to low-income countries: importance of systemic emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(53), pages 5707-5725, November.
    16. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Economic Diversification in LICs: Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/013, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    18. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
    19. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "FDI Flows to Low-Income Countries: Global Drivers and Growth Implications," IMF Working Papers 2010/132, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances [‘New rates for new weights’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 520-573.
    22. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    23. Dani Rodrik, 2011. "The future of economic convergence," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 13-52.
    24. Atsushi Iimi, 2007. "Escaping from the Resource Curse: Evidence from Botswana and the Rest of the World," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(4), pages 663-699, November.
    25. Frederick Solt, 2009. "Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(2), pages 231-242, June.
    26. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2009. "An Assessment of External Price Competitiveness for Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 2009/165, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Anke E. Hoeffler, 2000. "The Augmented Solow Model and the African Growth Debate," CID Working Papers 36, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    28. Mr. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2012. "Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia," IMF Working Papers 2012/096, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abiad, Abdul & Bluedorn, John & Guajardo, Jaime & Topalova, Petia, 2015. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-26.
    2. Mr. Alexander Culiuc, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations: Determinants and Consequences," IMF Working Papers 2020/060, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Domínguez, Rafael & Olivié, Iliana, 2014. "Retos para la cooperación al desarrollo en el post-2015 /Challenges for Development Cooperation in the Post-2015," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 32, pages 995-1020, Septiembr.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    2. Abiad, Abdul & Bluedorn, John & Guajardo, Jaime & Topalova, Petia, 2015. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-26.
    3. Montfort Mlachila & René Tapsoba & Sampawende J. A. Tapsoba, 2017. "A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(2), pages 675-710, November.
    4. Ms. Catherine McAuliffe & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Mr. Masafumi Yabara, 2012. "The East African Community: Prospects for Sustained Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/272, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    6. Ọláyínká Oyèkọ́lá, 2024. "Life may be unfair, but do democracies make it any less burdensome?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(3), pages 577-602, September.
    7. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali & Ahmed, Salah, 2020. "Chocs externes, Institutions démocratiques et Résilience économique [External shocks, democratic institutions and economic resilience]," MPRA Paper 100382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Paul Johnson & Chris Papageorgiou, 2020. "What Remains of Cross-Country Convergence?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(1), pages 129-175, March.
    9. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    10. Joya, Omar, 2015. "Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    11. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    12. Ann-Sofie Isaksson, 2011. "Social divisions and institutions: assessing institutional parameter variation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 331-357, June.
    13. Andrew Berg & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Yorbol Yakhshilikov, 2018. "Redistribution, inequality, and growth: new evidence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 259-305, September.
    14. Oleg Badunenko & Daniel Henderson & Romain Houssa, 2014. "Significant drivers of growth in Africa," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 339-354, December.
    15. Martin Gassebner & Jerg Gutmann & Stefan Voigt, 2016. "When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 293-313, December.
    16. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development: The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 11/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    17. Peter H. Lindert, 2017. "The Rise and Future of Progressive Redistribution," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 73, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    18. Oded Galor & Ömer Özak, 2016. "The Agricultural Origins of Time Preference," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3064-3103, October.
    19. Andrew G. Berg & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2017. "Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(4), pages 792-815, November.
    20. Berthold, Norbert & Gründler, Klaus, 2014. "On the empirics of social mobility: A macroeconomic approach," Discussion Paper Series 128, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.