IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsr/niesrd/3482.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monthly and quarterly GDP estimates for interwar Britain

Author

Listed:
  • Dr Martin Weale
  • Dr. James Mitchell

Abstract

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of indicators that were constructed at the time. We proceed to illustrate how the new data can contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the 1930s and have also used the series to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the 1930s and the post-war period.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "Monthly and quarterly GDP estimates for interwar Britain," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 348_2, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:348:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/dp348_0-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1996. "UK national income, 1920-1938: the implications of balanced estimates," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(1), pages 101-115, February.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 925-946, December.
    3. Broadberry, S N, 1986. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 467-481, June.
    4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    5. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2006. "Dynamic factor analysis with non‐linear temporal aggregation constraints," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 281-300, April.
    6. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    7. Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1993. "Balanced Estimates of National Accounts When Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The Uk, 1920–38," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(1), pages 89-105, January.
    8. Solomou, Solomos & Vartis, Dimitris, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates in Britain, 1920 1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 850-859, September.
    9. Foreman-Peck, James & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ma, Yue, 2000. "A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the Great Depression between the principal industrial economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 515-544, December.
    10. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    11. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas, Ryland & Hills, Sally & Dimsdale, Nicholas, 2010. "The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(4), pages 277-291.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mitchell, J. & Solomou, S. & Weale, M., 2009. "Monthly and Quarterly GDP Estimates for Interwar Britain," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0949, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Mitchell, James & Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 2012. "Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 543-556.
    3. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.
    4. Albers, Thilo & Uebele, Martin, 2015. "The global impact of the great depression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64491, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    7. Santos, Sonia de Lucas & Rodríguez, María Jesús Delgado & Ayuso, Inmaculada Álvarez, 2011. "Application of factor models for the identification of countries sharing international reference-cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2424-2431.
    8. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    9. Louise Holm, 2016. "The Swedish business cycle, 1969-2013," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2015(2), pages 1-22.
    10. Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2016. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 569-594, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    12. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2021. "Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 71-89, April.
    13. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Proietti, Tommaso & Frale, Cecilia & Mazzi, Gian Luigi, 2008. "A Monthly Indicator of the Euro Area GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7007, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
    15. Abdullah Tahir & Jameel Ahmed & Waqas Ahmed, 2018. "Robust Quarterization of GDP and Determination of Business Cycle Dates for IGC Partner Countries," SBP Working Paper Series 97, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    16. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 141-194, Elsevier.
    17. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
    18. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Enrica De Cian & Malcolm Mistry & Anthony Osuntuyi, 2020. "The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach," Papers 2012.14693, arXiv.org.
    19. Declan Curran & Michael Funke, 2006. "Taking the Temperature - Forecasting GDP Growth for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20606, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    20. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2023. "European business cycles and economic growth, 1300-2000," Economic History Working Papers 120364, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:348:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library & Information Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.