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Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area

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  • Rünstler, Gerhard
  • Bräuer, Leonie

Abstract

We study state dependence in the impact of monetary policy shocks over the leverage cycle for a panel of 10 euro area countries. We use a Bayesian Threshold Panel SVAR with regime classifications based on credit and house prices cycles. We find that monetary policy shocks trigger a smaller response of GDP, but a larger response of inflation during low states of the cycle. The shift in the inflation-output trade-off may result from higher macro-economic uncertainty in low leverage states. For an alternative regime classification based on turning points we find larger effects on GDP during contractions. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E44

Suggested Citation

  • Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202421
    Note: 339116
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    1. Hülsewig, Oliver & Rottmann, Horst, 2021. "Euro area house prices and unconventional monetary policy surprises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Threshold Panel VAR; financial cycle; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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