Vietnamese Inter – regional labor migration: system approach to the modeling 1989, 1999, 2009

Author used the data of Vietnam Population Census 1989, 1999, 2009 and estimated inter regional labor migration function of Vietnam. Based on the method of system approach of Poot (1986), author adapted it to Vietnamese data and also studied the convergence speed of the migration function. The method of system approach is applied to the Vietnam Population Census Data 1989, 1999, 2009. Estimation of migration function is OLS methods. More information is mentioned in attached summary. Author states here, in brief, four interesting findings in the paper. (1)Apart from dynamical in and out migration all over the country, Vietnam, from the end of 1980s to the early of 2000s, author shows the evidence that there exists regional inflow and out flow of migrations between Hochiminh city and its neighbor provinces. (2)There exists a decrease, “slow down,” of the influence on the in – migration power in all provinces in Vietnam. For example, during the years that economic recession was covering over developing countries from 1990s to the early of 2000s, high regional average income became less attractive to make labor force in – migrate from outside into the region/province. (3)Coincidently, neighbor provinces of Hochimonh, such as Dong Nai, Binh Duong, started industrialization and regional development from 1990s to the early of 2000s. This resulted in an inverse labor inflow from the region with high income Hochiminh city to regions with low income neighbor provinces of Hochimonh. (4)Based on these finding, author then extended the model to study on long term labor migration. Author estimated ECM, error correction model, and showed that the coefficient of convergence to the long term model is – 0.534. It means that Vietnamese migration would converge by nine ty percent until 2020, and ninety nine percent until 2050.