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Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles

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  • Yongsung Chang

    (University of Rochester and Yonsei University)

  • Sunoong Hwang

    (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET))

Abstract

We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts. © 2015 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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  • Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:97:y:2015:i:1:p:116-133
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. manufacturing; turning points; macroeconomic shocks; industrial phase shifts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • B00 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - General - - - History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches
    • L00 - Industrial Organization - - General - - - General

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