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Is risk higher during non-trading periods? The risk trade-off for intraday versus overnight market returns

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  • Riedel, Christoph
  • Wagner, Niklas

Abstract

We study the magnitude of tail risk – particularly lower tail downside risk – that is present in intraday versus overnight market returns and thereby examine the nature of the respective market risk borne by market participants. Using the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the return innovations, we use a GARCH model for the conditional market return components of major stock markets covering the U.S., France, Germany and Japan. Testing for fat-tails and tail index equality, we find that overnight return innovations exhibit significant tail risk, while intraday innovations do not. We illustrate this volatility versus tail risk trade-off based on conditional Value-at-Risk calculations. Our results show that overnight downside market risk is composed of a moderate volatility risk component and a significant tail risk component. We conclude that market participants face different intraday versus overnight risk profiles and that a risk assessment based on volatility only will severely underestimate overnight downside risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Riedel, Christoph & Wagner, Niklas, 2015. "Is risk higher during non-trading periods? The risk trade-off for intraday versus overnight market returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 53-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:39:y:2015:i:c:p:53-64
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2015.05.012
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    Cited by:

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    2. Laurence E. Blose & Vijay Gondhalekar & Alan Kort, 2018. "Overnight versus day returns in gold and gold related assets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 526-549, July.
    3. Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Karaa, Rabaa, 2023. "From dusk till dawn (and vice versa): Overnight-versus-daytime reversals and feedback trading," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Wang, Cheng & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2023. "Intraday and overnight tail risks and return predictability in the crude oil market: Evidence from oil-related regular news and extreme shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    5. Qiao, Kenan & Dam, Lammertjan, 2020. "The overnight return puzzle and the “T+1” trading rule in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Jamie Kang & Tim Leung, 2017. "Asynchronous ADRs: overnight vs intraday returns and trading strategies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 580-596, October.
    7. Zhang, Bing, 2020. "T+1 trading mechanism causes negative overnight return," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 55-71.
    8. Saadon, Yossi & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2023. "Newspapers tone and the overnight-intraday stock return anomaly," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Johannes Stübinger & Sylvia Endres, 2018. "Pairs trading with a mean-reverting jump–diffusion model on high-frequency data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1735-1751, October.
    10. Patrizia Perras & Niklas Wagner, 2020. "On the pricing of overnight market risk," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1307-1327, September.
    11. Mosi Rosenboim & Yossi Saadon & Ben Z. Schreiber, 2018. "“Much Ado about Nothing”? The Effect of Print Media Tone on Stock Indices," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2018.10, Bank of Israel.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market risk; Tail risk; Downside risk; Value-at-risk; Intraday returns; Overnight risk; Stock markets; Extreme returns; Tail index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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