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Evaluating inflation targeting as a monetary policy objective for India

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  • Mishra, Ankita
  • Mishra, Vinod

Abstract

This study formulates a small open economy model for India with exchange rate as a prominent channel of monetary policy. The model is estimated using the Instrumental Variable-Generalized Methods of Moments (IV-GMM) estimator and evaluated through simulations. This study compares different cases of domestic and CPI inflation targeting, strict and flexible inflation targeting, and simple Taylor type rules. The analysis highlights the unsuitability of simple Taylor-type monetary rules in stabilizing the Indian economy and suggests that discretionary optimization works better in stabilizing this economy. There seems to be a trade-off between output gap stabilization and exchange rate stabilization in flexible domestic inflation targeting and CPI inflation targeting respectively. However, flexible domestic inflation targeting seems a better alternative from an overall macro stabilization perspective in India where financial markets are still not sufficiently integrated to ensure quick transmission of interest rate impulses and existence of rigidities in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mishra, Ankita & Mishra, Vinod, 2012. "Evaluating inflation targeting as a monetary policy objective for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1053-1063.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1053-1063
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Patra, Michael Debabrata & Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar & Gangadaran, Sivaramakrishnan, 2017. "The quest for optimal monetary policy rules in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 349-370.
    2. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2013. "Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 286-296.
    3. Abdhut Deheri, 2021. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Inflation in India: A Time-varying Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1603-1614.
    4. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2016. "Conducting Monetary Policy in South Asian Economies: An Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 161-190.
    5. Barendra Kumar Bhoi & Abhishek Kumar & Prashant Mehul Parab, "undated". "Aggregate demand management, policy errors and optimal monetary policy in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-029, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Byomakesh Debata & Jitendra Mahakud, 2018. "Interdependence between Monetary Policy and Stock Liquidity: A Panel VAR Approach," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(4), pages 387-413, November.
    7. Kumar, Ankit & Dash, Pradyumna, 2020. "Changing transmission of monetary policy on disaggregate inflation in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 109-125.
    8. Junankar, Pramod N. (Raja), 2019. "Monetary Policy, Growth and Employment in Developing Areas: A Review of the Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12197, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Gupta, Sargam, 2024. "Inefficient shocks and optimal monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    10. Chen, Li-Ju & Hu, Shih-Wen & Wang, Vey & Wen, Jiandong & Ye, Chusheng, 2014. "The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 439-447.
    11. Wei, Xiaoyun & Li, Jie & Han, Liyan, 2020. "Optimal targeted reduction in reserve requirement ratio in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2022. "Commodity futures prices pass-through and monetary policy in India: Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    India; Inflation targeting; CPI; Taylor's rule; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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