Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
- Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2006.
"Dating Business Cycle Turning Points,"
Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 1-54,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boldin Michael D., 1996. "A Check on the Robustness of Hamilton's Markov Switching Model Approach to the Economic Analysis of the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, April.
- Chang‐Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2005.
"Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1681-1690, July.
- Nadir Ocal & Denise R. Osborn, 2000. "Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 27-43.
- Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998.
"A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 47-75.
- Clements, Michael P. & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 1997. "A Comparison Of The Forecast Performance Of Markov-Switching And Threshold Autoregressive Models Of Us Gnp," Economic Research Papers 268771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000.
"Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?,"
Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-444, October.
- Jean-Francois Richard, 2007. "Efficient High-Dimensional Importance Sampling," Working Paper 321, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2007.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Durland, J Michael & McCurdy, Thomas H, 1994.
"Duration-Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 279-288, July.
- J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Paper 887, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998.
"Business cycle durations,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
- Gordon, S.F. & Filardo, A.J., 1993. "Business Cycle Durations," Papers 9328, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
- Andrew J. Filardo & Stephen F. Gordon, 1993. "Business cycle durations," Research Working Paper 93-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999.
"Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 311-340, September.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1997. "Modelling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9734/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008.
"A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004.
"The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," International Finance Discussion Papers 707, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Garcia, Rene, 1998.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
- René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
- Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1997.
"A floor and ceiling model of US output,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 661-695, May.
- Pesaran, H.M. & Potter, S.M., 1995. "A Floor and Ceiling Model of U.S. Output," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Richard, Jean-Francois & Zhang, Wei, 2007. "Efficient high-dimensional importance sampling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1385-1411, December.
- James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006.
"The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features,"
Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006.
"The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features,"
Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013.
"Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
- James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2012. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?," Discussion Papers 2012-23, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Chang‐Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2005.
"Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
- James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Beatriz C. Galvao, Ana, 2002. "Can non-linear time series models generate US business cycle asymmetric shape?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 187-194, October.
- Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014.
"The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
- Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," Post-Print hal-02979744, HAL.
- Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007.
"A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
- Giordani, P. & Kohn, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2005. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change and outliers," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-09, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003.
"Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
- Clements, Michael & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 1998. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Economic Research Papers 269248, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2005.
"How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 253-274.
- Peter M. Summers & Penelope A. Smith, 2005. "How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 253-274.
- Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "How Well Do Markov Switching Models Describe Actual Business Cycles? The Case of Synchronization," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2004n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
- Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
- L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
- Frédérique BEC & Othman BOUABDALLAH & Laurent FERRARA, 2011.
"The Possible Shapes of Recoveries in Markov-Switching Models,"
Working Papers
2011-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Bec Frederique & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-Switching models," THEMA Working Papers 2011-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
- Jiang, Yu, 2020. "Identification of business cycles and the Great Moderation in the post-war U.S. economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
- Altug, Sumru & Bildirici, Melike, 2010.
"Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime-switching Approach,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
- Sumru Altug & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1009, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Hamilton, J.D., 2016.
"Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201,
Elsevier.
- James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:oxf:wpaper:2000-w36.2 is not listed on IDEAS
- van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
More about this item
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2008-09-20 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FDG-2008-09-20 (Financial Development and Growth)
- NEP-FOR-2008-09-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2008-09-20 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depghus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.