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Heterogeneous expectations and long-range correlation of the volatility of asset returns

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  • J. Coulon
  • Y. Malevergne

Abstract

Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, we attempt to relate the long-range correlation of the stock return volatility to the heterogeneity of the investors' expectations concerning the level of the future volatility. Based on a semi-parametric model of investors' anticipations, we make the connection between the distributional properties of the heterogeneity parameters and the auto-covariance/auto-correlation functions of the realized volatility. We report different behaviors, or change of convention, the observation of which depends on the market phase under consideration. In particular, we report and justify the fact that the volatility exhibits significantly longer memory during phases of a speculative bubble than during the recovery phase following the collapse of a speculative bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Coulon & Y. Malevergne, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations and long-range correlation of the volatility of asset returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 1329-1356, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:11:y:2011:i:9:p:1329-1356
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2010.542771
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    1. Samuel E. Vazquez, 2009. "Scale Invariance, Bounded Rationality and Non-Equilibrium Economics," Papers 0902.3840, arXiv.org.

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