IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2023-03-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dynamic Relationship among Domestic Stock Returns Volatility, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Factors of Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Malik Shahzad Shabbir

    (Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences, ILMA University, Karachi, Pakistan.)

  • Laila Refiana Said

    (Lambung Mangkurat University, Banjarmasin, Indonesia,)

  • Irem Pelit

    (Higher Vocational School, Cag University, Mersin, Turkey.)

  • Esma Irmak

    (Higher Vocational School, Cag University, Mersin, Turkey.)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of oil price variations, exchange rates, macroeconomic factors and domestic stock volatility in South Asian countries. This study employs a general autoregressive heteroskedastic (GARCH) model using quarterly data from 2001 to 2021. The results reveal that there is a significant relationship between the domestic stock of credit and macroeconomic factors. We find surprising results for the set of the countries; there is a negative impact of asset portfolio investment in the domestic stock for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan and a positive effect for the remaining countries. There is a positive impact on the economic growth in the majority of countries with the exception of Afghanistan and Bangladesh. Inflation seems to increase while there is an increase in the credit in the economy except for Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. Exchange rate has a negative impact on the domestic stock except for India and Nepal. Further, there is a positive effect on the interest rate spread in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Finally, oil prices have a significant impact on exchange rates within the countries investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Malik Shahzad Shabbir & Laila Refiana Said & Irem Pelit & Esma Irmak, 2023. "The Dynamic Relationship among Domestic Stock Returns Volatility, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Factors of Investment," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 560-565, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-03-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/14263/7346
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/14263
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
    2. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
    3. Muhammad Bilal Khan & Hummera Saleem & Malik Shahzad Shabbir & Xie Huobao, 2022. "The effects of globalization, energy consumption and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions in South Asian countries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 33(1), pages 107-134, February.
    4. Jianxin Wang, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Asian Stock Markets: Contributions of Local, Regional, and Global Factors," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 28(02), pages 32-57, December.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. M. N. Khan & N. Tantisantiwong & S. G. M. Fifield & D. M. Power, 2015. "The relationship between South Asian stock returns and macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 1298-1313, March.
    7. Syed Mujahid Hussain & Timo Korkeamäki & Danielle Xu & Ashfaque Hasan Khan, 2015. "What Drives Stock Market Growth? A Case of a Volatile Emerging Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 209-223, January.
    8. Golam Mohammad Wali Ullah & Ashraful Islam & Md. Sohan Alam & Md. Kanon Khan, 2017. "Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Performance of SAARC Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(8), pages 770-779.
    9. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. "ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-366, December.
    10. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
    11. Wamg, Jianxin, 2011. "Forecasting Volatility in Asian Stock Markets: Contributions of Local, Regional, and Global Factors," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 32-57.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
    2. Novkovska, Blagica & Serafimovic, Gordana, 2018. "Recognizing The Vulnerability Of Generation Z To Economic And Social Risks," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(1), pages 29-37.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of a Prediction Error Criterion Model Selection Algorithm in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 96324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Asgharian, Hossein & Sikström, Sverker, 2013. "Predicting Stock Price Volatility by Analyzing Semantic Content in Media," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2013/16, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    5. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
    6. Angelovska, Julijana & Ivanovski, Zoran, 2018. "Accuracy In Risk Estimation Based On Simple Sma And Ewma Models:Evidence From Macedonian Stock Market," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(1), pages 17-27.
    7. Stéphane Yen & Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2010. "Open interest, volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 113-141, April.
    8. Mehmet Sahiner, 2022. "Forecasting volatility in Asian financial markets: evidence from recursive and rolling window methods," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-74, October.
    9. Nakovski, Dejan & Milenkovski, Ace & Gjorgievski, Mijalce, 2018. "Indicators For Defining The Emitting Areas In Tourism," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 9(1), pages 39-48.
    10. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Ghysels, Eric, 1996. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 139-151, April.
    12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ercan Balaban & Asli Bayar & Robert Faff, 2006. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Further international evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 171-188.
    14. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Mean and variance causality between the Cyprus Stock Exchange and major equity markets," Working Papers 0501, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    15. McMillan, David G. & Speight, Alan E. H., 2001. "Non-ferrous metals price volatility: a component analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 199-207, September.
    16. de Goeij, Peter & Marquering, Wessel, 2009. "Stock and bond market interactions with level and asymmetry dynamics: An out-of-sample application," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 318-329, March.
    17. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Heterogeneous information flows and intra-day volatility dynamics: evidence from the UK FTSE-100 stock index futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(13), pages 959-972.
    18. repec:cte:wsrepe:5708 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chen, Shiyi & Jeong, Kiho & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2008. "Support vector regression based GARCH model with application to forecasting volatility of financial returns," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-014, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    20. Haniff, Mohd Nizal & Pok, Wee Ching, 2010. "Intraday volatility and periodicity in the Malaysian stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 329-343, September.
    21. repec:adr:anecst:y:1991:i:24:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Prices; Energy Sources; Exchange Rate; Macroeconomic Factors; Domestic Stock Returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-03-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.