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Unambiguous inference in sign-restricted VAR models

Author

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  • Robert Calvert Jump

    (University of the West of England, Bristol)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates how sign restrictions can be used to infer the signs of certain historical shocks from reduced form VAR residuals. This is achieved without recourse to non-sign information. The method is illustrated by an application to the AD-AS model using UK data.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Calvert Jump, 2018. "Unambiguous inference in sign-restricted VAR models," Working Papers 20181802, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwe:wpaper:20181802
    as

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    File URL: http://www2.uwe.ac.uk/faculties/BBS/BUS/Research/General/Economics-papers-2018/1802.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Structural vector autoregressions," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 22, pages 515-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    4. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural VAR; sign restrictions.;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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