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Sowing the seeds of financial imbalances: The role of macroeconomic performance

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  • Afanasyeva, Elena
  • Jerow, Sam
  • Lee, Seung Jung
  • Modugno, Michele

Abstract

The seeds of financial imbalances are sown in times of buoyant economic growth. We study the link between macroeconomic performance and financial imbalances, focusing on the experience of the United States since the 1960s. We first follow a narrative approach to review historical episodes of significant financial imbalances and find that the onset of financial disturbances typically occurs when the economy is running hot. We then look for evidence of a statistical link between measures of macroeconomic conditions and financial imbalances. In our in-sample analysis, we find that strong economic growth is followed by a buildup of financial imbalances across all dimensions of the National Financial Conditions Index. In our out-of-sample analysis, we find that the link between strong economic performance and increases in nonfinancial leverage is particularly strong and robust. Using a structural VAR identified with narrative sign restrictions, we also demonstrate that business cycle shocks are important drivers of nonfinancial leverage.

Suggested Citation

  • Afanasyeva, Elena & Jerow, Sam & Lee, Seung Jung & Modugno, Michele, 2024. "Sowing the seeds of financial imbalances: The role of macroeconomic performance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:74:y:2024:i:c:s157230892030142x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2020.100839
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Afanasyeva, 2020. "Can Forecast Errors Predict Financial Crises? Exploring the Properties of a New Multivariate Credit Gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Herwartz, Helmut & Roestel, Jan, 2022. "Asset prices, financial amplification and monetary policy: Structural evidence from an identified multivariate GARCH model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Financial cycle; Financial stability; Forecasting; Sign-restricted SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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