IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/fininn/v7y2021i1d10.1186_s40854-021-00276-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price distortions and municipal bonds premiums: evidence from Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Darko B. Vukovic

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Carlos J. Rincon

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Moinak Maiti

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This study examines the pricing of municipal bonds before and after a currency shock in Switzerland. Two approaches are used to decompose the municipal to treasuries bond spreads into liquidity, maturity, and default risk premiums. The first approach is the model of the cross-sectional instrumental variables, and the second approach is the model of the instrumental variables with panel data. This study examines the composition of spreads for both approaches, in three scenarios: before, throughout, and after the currency shock. The study performed Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests for each decisive model to verify endogeneity issues, including the Lagrangian Multiplier test, the Cragg-Donald Wald F statistic to confirm the relationship of instrumental and endogenous variables, and the structural break test (Bai-Perron test) to determine the existence of structural breaks in bond distortions. This study finds that the currency price distortions of the Swiss franc in January 2015 made long-run changes in the composition of the municipal bond spreads. This research contributes to the understanding of municipal bond pricing by showing that default risk accounts for a large portion of the municipal bond spread, while maturity risk plays a lesser role. According to our empirical findings, unexpected large currency price shocks may have long-term implications on the municipal bond spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Darko B. Vukovic & Carlos J. Rincon & Moinak Maiti, 2021. "Price distortions and municipal bonds premiums: evidence from Switzerland," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-021-00276-8
    DOI: 10.1186/s40854-021-00276-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40854-021-00276-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40854-021-00276-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trzcinka, Charles A, 1982. "The Pricing of Tax-Exempt Bonds and the Miller Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 907-923, September.
    2. Richard C. Green & Dan Li & Norman Schürhoff, 2010. "Price Discovery in Illiquid Markets: Do Financial Asset Prices Rise Faster Than They Fall?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1669-1702, October.
    3. Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2020. "Liquidity backstops and dynamic debt runs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Vukovic, Darko & Vyklyuk, Yaroslav & Matsiuk, Natalia & Maiti, Moinak, 2020. "Neural network forecasting in prediction Sharpe ratio: Evidence from EU debt market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    5. Shoven, John B. & Sialm, Clemens, 2004. "Asset location in tax-deferred and conventional savings accounts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 23-38, January.
    6. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    7. Green, Richard C & Odegaard, Bernt A, 1997. "Are There Tax Effects in the Relative Pricing of U.S. Government Bonds?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 609-633, June.
    8. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds [The distribution of realized stock return volatility]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    9. Vukovic, Darko B. & Lapshina, Kseniya A. & Maiti, Moinak, 2021. "Wavelet coherence analysis of returns, volatility and interdependence of the US and the EU money markets: Pre & post crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    11. Faruk Balli, 2009. "Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 331-363, October.
    12. Quanbo Zha & Gang Kou & Hengjie Zhang & Haiming Liang & Xia Chen & Cong-Cong Li & Yucheng Dong, 2020. "Opinion dynamics in finance and business: a literature review and research opportunities," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    13. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai & Andrew Karolyi, 0. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    14. Wen, Fenghua & Xu, Longhao & Ouyang, Guangda & Kou, Gang, 2019. "Retail investor attention and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Vukovic, Darko & Lapshina, Kseniya A. & Maiti, Moinak, 2019. "European Monetary Union bond market dynamics: Pre & post crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 369-380.
    16. Sebastien Lleo & William T. Ziemba, 2015. "The Swiss Black Swan Bad Scenario: Is Switzerland Another Casualty of the Eurozone Crisis?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-30, August.
    17. Darko B. Vukovic & Victor Prosin, 2018. "The prospective low risk hedge fund capital allocation line model: evidence from the debt market," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 9(3), pages 419-439, September.
    18. Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi & Zhang, Frank X., 2008. "Liquidity, default, taxes, and yields on municipal bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1133-1149, June.
    19. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    20. Francis A. Longstaff, 2011. "Municipal Debt and Marginal Tax Rates: Is There a Tax Premium in Asset Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 721-751, June.
    21. Andrew Ang & Vineer Bhansali & Yuhang Xing, 2010. "Taxes on Tax‐Exempt Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 565-601, April.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:899-931 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Zimmerman, Jl, 1977. "Municipal Accounting Maze - Analysis Of Political Incentives," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15, pages 107-155.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:999-1037 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Landoni, Mattia, 2018. "Tax distortions and bond issue pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 382-393.
    26. Richard C. Green, 2007. "Presidential Address: Issuers, Underwriter Syndicates, and Aftermarket Transparency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1529-1550, August.
    27. Michael Schwert, 2017. "Municipal Bond Liquidity and Default Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1683-1722, August.
    28. Michael Bleaney & Veronica Veleanu, 2021. "Redenomination risk in eurozone corporate bond spreads," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(13), pages 1303-1325, September.
    29. Ang, Andrew & Longstaff, Francis A., 2013. "Systemic sovereign credit risk: Lessons from the U.S. and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 493-510.
    30. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-275, May.
    31. Green, Richard C, 1993. "A Simple Model of the Taxable and Tax-Exempt Yield Curves," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 233-264.
    32. Xiao-Wan Jiang, 2019. "The Impact of Government Intervention on Municipal Bond Liquidity Premium: Evidence from China," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 79-86, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dario Cestau & Burton Hollifield & Dan Li & Norman Schürhoff, 2019. "Municipal Bond Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 65-84, December.
    2. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    3. Thomas Luke Spreen & Ed Gerrish, 2022. "Taxes and tax‐exempt bonds: A literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, September.
    4. Hattori, Takahiro, 2018. "Decomposing Japanese municipal bond spreads: Default and liquidity premiums in times of crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    5. Junbo Wang & Chunchi Wu & Frank X. Zhang, 2005. "Liquidity, default, taxes and yields on municipal bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Ivanov, Ivan T. & Zimmermann, Tom & Heinrich, Nathan W., 2022. "Limits of disclosure regulation in the municipal bond market," CFR Working Papers 22-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Tran, Nhu & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2023. "Reprint of: COVID-19, lockdowns, and the municipal bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Andrew F. Haughwout & Benjamin Hyman & Or Shachar, 2021. "The Option Value of Municipal Liquidity: Evidence from Federal Lending Cutoffs during COVID-19," Staff Reports 988, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Tran, Nhu & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2022. "COVID-19, lockdowns, and the municipal bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Albert Lee Chun & Ethan Namvar & Xiaoxia Ye & Fan Yu, 2019. "Modeling Municipal Yields With (and Without) Bond Insurance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3694-3713, August.
    11. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2019. "Municipal borrowing costs and state policies for distressed municipalities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 404-426.
    12. Lu, Runjing & Ye, Zihan, 2023. "Roe v. Rates: Reproductive Healthcare and Public Financing Costs," SocArXiv 7t5jz, Center for Open Science.
    13. Landon, Stuart, 2009. "The capitalization of taxes in bond prices: Evidence from the market for Government of Canada bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2175-2184, December.
    14. Butler, Alexander W. & Yi, Hanyi, 2022. "Aging and public financing costs: Evidence from U.S. municipal bond markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    15. Landoni, Mattia, 2018. "Tax distortions and bond issue pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 382-393.
    16. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2020. "Where the Heart Is: Information Production and the Home Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5532-5557, December.
    17. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds [The distribution of realized stock return volatility]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    18. Baridhi Malakar, 2024. "Essays on Responsible and Sustainable Finance," Papers 2406.12995, arXiv.org.
    19. McConnell, John J. & Saretto, Alessio, 2010. "Auction failures and the market for auction rate securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 451-469, September.
    20. Xu, Kuan, 1998. "Income uncertainty, substitution effect and relative yield spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 217-225.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Municipal bonds; Risk premiums; Bond spreads; Price distortions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:fininn:v:7:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-021-00276-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.