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Aggregate liquidity premium and cross-sectional returns: Evidence from China

Author

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  • Liao, Cunfei
  • Luo, Qianlin
  • Tang, Guohao

Abstract

The Chinese stock market incurs huge illiquidity costs. Liquidity has different aspects but literature rarely measures it from an aggregate perspective. To capture liquidity along various dimensions and more consistently, we propose an aggregate liquidity premium with a partial least squares approach by aggregating information on 12 liquidity-related firm characteristics in the Chinese stock market. The aggregate liquidity predictor generates significantly higher expected stock returns than individual characteristics, remains robust to different information aggregation methods, and reflects the multidimensional feature of liquidity. Behavioral mispricing theory helps explain the aggregate liquidity premium because illiquidity limits arbitrage to correct mispricing. As liquidity is important and traditional factor models limitedly explain it, we develop a new-factor model to capture the aggregate liquidity premium. The aggregate liquidity premium in China indicates that policymakers should improve market liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Cunfei & Luo, Qianlin & Tang, Guohao, 2021. "Aggregate liquidity premium and cross-sectional returns: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:104:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321002340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105645
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    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Beier, 2023. "The asymmetric dynamics of stock–bond liquidity correlation in China: The role of macro-financial determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Su, Zhi & Lyu, Tongtong & Yin, Libo, 2022. "China's illiquidity premium: Due to risk-taking or mispricing?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Liao, Cunfei & Ma, Tian, 2024. "From fundamental signals to stock volatility: A machine learning approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Su, Zhi & Lyu, Tongtong & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Are conditional illiquidity risks priced in China? A cross-sectional test," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Xue Gong & Weiguo Zhang & Weijun Xu & Zhe Li, 2022. "Uncertainty index and stock volatility prediction: evidence from international markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-44, December.
    6. Dong, Liang & Yu, Bo & Qin, Zhenjiang & Lam, Keith S.K., 2024. "Liquidity risk and expected returns in China’s stock market: A multidimensional liquidity approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aggregate liquidity premium; Information aggregation; Partial least squares; Mispricing; New-factor model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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