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An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Terence Tai-Leung Chong
  • Zimu Li
  • Haiqiang Chen
  • Melvin Hinich

Abstract

This paper investigates the duration dependence of the US stock market cycles. A new classification method for bull and bear market regimes based on the crossing of the market index and its moving average is proposed. We show evidence of duration dependence in whole cycles. The half cycles, however, are found to be duration independent. More importantly, we find that the degree of duration dependence of the US stock market cycles has dropped after the launch of the NASDAQ index.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Zimu Li & Haiqiang Chen & Melvin Hinich, 2010. "An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 1407-1416.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:37:y:2010:i:8:p:1407-1416
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760903039875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The Portuguese stock market cycle: Chronology and duration dependence," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-23.
    4. Dębski Wiesław & Feder-Sempach Ewa, 2012. "Beta Coefficients of Polish Blue Chip Companies in the Period Of 2005–2011," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 90-102, December.
    5. Si, Deng-Kui & Liu, Xi-Hua & Kong, Xianli, 2019. "The comovement and causality between stock market cycle and business cycle in China: Evidence from a wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 17-30.

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