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Cycle Du Credit Et Cycle Des Affaires Dans Les Pays De La Cemac

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  • Pamphile MEZUI-MBENG

Abstract

This article analyzes potential interactions between the cyclic fluctuations in credit and activity within CEMAC countries. Cycles are extracted using a pass-band filter, then characterized over the period 1960-2008 according to the Bry and Boshan algorithm. Co-movements and concordance analysis establish the procyclical character of credit in CEMAC countries. Cointegration and causality tests specify nature of interactions between the cycles in different countries. Indeed, in Chad credit cycle causes activity cycle; in Gabon and Congo, a feedback effect is observed; in Cameroon and CAR causality seems less obvious. Finally, results reveal specificities in banks behavior towards financing of activity in the CEMAC area.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamphile MEZUI-MBENG, 2012. "Cycle Du Credit Et Cycle Des Affaires Dans Les Pays De La Cemac," Cahiers du CEREFIGE 1202, CEREFIGE (Centre Europeen de Recherche en Economie Financiere et Gestion des Entreprises), Universite de Lorraine, revised 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:fie:wpaper:1202
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit cycle; business cycle; pass-band filter; co-movements; concordance index.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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