Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance
In: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1108/S0731-9053(2011)000027B004
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
References listed on IDEAS
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
- Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998.
"A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 47-75.
- Clements, Michael P. & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 1997. "A Comparison Of The Forecast Performance Of Markov-Switching And Threshold Autoregressive Models Of Us Gnp," Economic Research Papers 268771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008.
"A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2021. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-85, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008.
"Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," NBER Working Papers 12109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- Francq, C. & Zakoian, J. -M., 2001.
"Stationarity of multivariate Markov-switching ARMA models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 339-364, June.
- Christian Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoïan, 2000. "Stationarity of Multivariate Markov-Switching ARMA Models," Working Papers 2000-32, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
"An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Turner, Christopher M. & Startz, Richard & Nelson, Charles R., 1989.
"A Markov model of heteroskedasticity, risk, and learning in the stock market,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-22, November.
- Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 89-01, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Working Papers 89-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Christopher M. Turner & Richard Startz & Charles R. Nelson, 1989. "A Markov Model of Heteroskedasticity, Risk, and Learning in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 2818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004.
"Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
- Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y., 1987.
"Stock returns and the term structure,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
- John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Vlaar, Peter J G & Palm, Franz C, 1993. "The Message in Weekly Exchange Rates in the European Monetary System: Mean Reversion, Conditional Heteroscedasticity, and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 351-360, July.
- Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990.
"Alternative models for conditional stock volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
- Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- Adrian R. Pagan & G. William Schwert, 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," NBER Working Papers 2955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2006.
"An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Working Papers 2005-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 111-143, January.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
- Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007.
"The determinants of stock and bond return comovements,"
Working Paper Research
119, National Bank of Belgium.
- Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003.
"Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 96-125.
- Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Modeling the US short-term interest rate by mixture autoregressive processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,76, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 PO5, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006.
"Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308.
- Timmermann, Allan & Guidolin, Massimo, 2004. "Term Structure of Risk Under Alternative Econometric Specifications," CEPR Discussion Papers 4645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Working Papers 2005-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010.
"New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
- Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
- Antonio Moreno & Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho, 2004. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," 2004 Meeting Papers 388, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Cho, Seonghoon & Moreno Ibáñez, Antonio, 2006. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 5956, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno & Geert Bekaert, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Faculty Working Papers 04/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas, 2008. "Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1008-1021, June.
- Dueker, Michael J, 1997.
"Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
- Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean reverting stock market volatility," Working Papers 1994-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Dueker(1997) Markov switching GARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00048, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Regime Switching in Stock Market Returns," Econometrics 9502002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Soosung Hwang & Steve E. Satchell & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2007.
"How Persistent is Stock Return Volatility? An Answer with Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility Models,"
Journal of Business Finance & Accounting,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5‐6), pages 1002-1024, June.
- Soosung Hwang & Steve E. Satchell & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2007. "How Persistent is Stock Return Volatility? An Answer with Markov Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5-6), pages 1002-1024.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2009.
"Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 297-311, June.
- Timmermann, Allan & Guidolin, Massimo, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006.
"Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?,"
Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
- Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012.
"Regime Changes and Financial Markets,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Timmermann, Allan & Ang, Andrew, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004.
"Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
- Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Optimal Forecast Combination Under General Loss Functions and Forecast Error Distributions," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt15r9t2q2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- H. Bertholon & A. Monfort & F. Pegoraro, 2008.
"Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 407-458, Fall.
- Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Working Papers 2007-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Working papers 223, Banque de France.
- Rockinger, Michael & Jondeau, Eric, 2002.
"Entropy densities with an application to autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 119-142, January.
- Rockinger, M. & Jondeau, E., 2001. "Entropy Densities: with an Application to Autoregressive Conditional Skewness and Kurtosis," Working papers 79, Banque de France.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
- Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225.
- repec:adr:anecst:y:1995:i:40:p:04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
- Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2003.
"Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 727-744, December.
- van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-10, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Baele, Lieven, 2005.
"Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
- L. Baele, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/189, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Discussion Paper 2003-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009.
"Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- C. W. J. Granger & Zhuanxin Ding, 1995. "Some Properties of Absolute Return: An Alternative Measure of Risk," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 40, pages 67-91.
- Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-474, October.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986.
"The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998.
"Forecasting Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, September.
- Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, September.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2000.
"Moments of Markov switching models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
- Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Markus Haas, 2004. "A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 493-530.
- Markus Hahn & Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter & Jörn Sass, 2010. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Parameter Estimation in Multidimensional Continuous Time Markov Switching Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 88-121, Winter.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & King, Maxwell L. & White, Halbert, 1995. "Comments on testing economic theories and the use of model selection criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 173-187, May.
- Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
- Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-428.
- Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July.
- Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Acharya, Viral V. & Amihud, Yakov & Bharath, Sreedhar T., 2013.
"Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 358-386.
- Viral V. Acharya & Yakov Amihud & Sreedhar T. Bharath, 2010. "Liquidity Risk of Corporate Bond Returns: A Conditional Approach," NBER Working Papers 16394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999.
"Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Campbell, John & Cochrane, John H., 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Ľluboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001.
"The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, August.
- Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 21-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2000. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," CRSP working papers 519, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2000. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," NBER Working Papers 7778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2002. "The Performance of Non-linear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 513-542, November.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Kaminsky, Graciela, 1993. "Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 450-472, June.
- Michael Rockinger & Eric Jondeau, 2000.
"Entropy Densities,"
Working Papers
hal-00601485, HAL.
- ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2000. "Entropy densities," HEC Research Papers Series 709, HEC Paris.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003.
"On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov‐Switching Autoregressive Models,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 237-252, March.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002. "On the Determination of the Number of Regimes in Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 83, Society for Computational Economics.
- James, Christopher & Koreisha, Sergio & Partch, Megan, 1985. "A VARMA Analysis of the Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Real Output, and Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1375-1384, December.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
- Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994.
"Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
- Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "The combination of forecasts using changing weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-57, June.
- Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009.
"Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk,"
Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 15-48, January.
- Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2005. "Small Caps in International Equity Portfolios: The Effects of Variance Risk," CeRP Working Papers 41, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
- Lieven Baele, 2010.
"The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
- Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
- Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. "Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-1128, September.
- Yongmiao Hong & Haitao Li & Feng Zhao, 2004. "Out-of-Sample Performance of Discrete-Time Spot Interest Rate Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 457-473, October.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
- Jacquier, Eric & Johannes, Michael & Polson, Nicholas, 2007. "MCMC maximum likelihood for latent state models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 615-640, April.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2005. "The Structural Break in the Equity Premium," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 181-191, April.
- Franc Klaassen, 2002. "Improving GARCH volatility forecasts with regime-switching GARCH," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 363-394.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, April.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012.
"Regime Changes and Financial Markets,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
- Timmermann, Allan & Ang, Andrew, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2011. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 17182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Massimo Guidolin & Federica Ria, 2011.
"Regime shifts in mean-variance efficient frontiers: Some international evidence,"
Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(5), pages 322-349, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Federica Ria, 2010. "Regime shifts in mean-variance efficient frontiers: some international evidence," Working Papers 2010-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Richard D. F. Harris & Murat Mazibas, 2022. "A component Markov regime‐switching autoregressive conditional range model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 650-683, April.
- Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023.
"Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Working Paper Series 2020-03, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2020. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," Research Papers in Economics 2020-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
- Felix Haase & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2021. "Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets: A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the US," CESifo Working Paper Series 8828, CESifo.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012.
"Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 695-716.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2010. "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? a long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Working Papers 2010-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2011. "Can VAR Models Capture Regime Shifts in Asset Returns? A Long-Horizon Strategic Asset Allocation Perspective," Working Papers 414, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006.
"Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?,"
Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
- Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Hamilton, J.D., 2016.
"Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201,
Elsevier.
- James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
- Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
- Liu, Xinyi & Margaritis, Dimitris & Wang, Peiming, 2012. "Stock market volatility and equity returns: Evidence from a two-state Markov-switching model with regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 483-496.
- Chung-Ming Kuan, 2013. "Markov switching model (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 13-40, December.
- Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Apostolos Thomadakis, 2012. "Contagion or Flight-to-Quality Phenomena in Stock and Bond Returns," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0612, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2000.
"Volatility dynamics under duration-dependent mixing,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 345-372, November.
- John M. Maheu & Tom McCurdy, 2000. "Volatility Dynamics Under Duration-Dependent Mixing," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1427, Econometric Society.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001.
"Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 1999. "Does an Intertemporal Tradeoff between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0028, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0011, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0011, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 1999. "Does an Intertemporal Tradeoff between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0028, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, September.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, September.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
More about this item
Keywords
Markov switching; regimes; regime shifts; nonlinearities; predictability; autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-9053(2011)000027b004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.