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The Threshold Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Volume: Evidence from G-7 Countries

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  • Yanhong Zhang
  • Hui Chang
  • Jean Gauger

Abstract

This paper uses a threshold model to examine a possible threshold effect in the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade volume for the bilateral trade volumes between the US and other G-7 countries. A grid-searching method is used to obtain the threshold points, and time-series econometric techniques are applied to estimate the long run stable relationships as well as short-run dynamics. The results support the existence of nonlinearity in the effect of exchange rate volatility, and indicate that trade volume tends to increase when exchange rate volatility surpasses a certain threshold point.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanhong Zhang & Hui Chang & Jean Gauger, 2006. "The Threshold Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Volume: Evidence from G-7 Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 461-476.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:20:y:2006:i:4:p:461-476
    DOI: 10.1080/10168730601027039
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    6. Li, Yifan & Miao, Zhuang & Tuuli, Maxwell, 2022. "Exchange rate volatility and import of intermediate inputs: Evidence from Chinese firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-134.
    7. Veysel Avsar & Kemal Turkcan, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Auto-Industry Exports: A Panel Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 772-787.

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