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The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators

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Listed:
  • Georges Bresson

    (TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ERMES - Equipe de recherche sur les marches, l'emploi et la simulation - UP2 - Université Panthéon-Assas - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Joyce Dargay
  • Jean-Loup Madre

    (INRETS/DEST - Département Economie et Sociologie des Transports - INRETS - Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Sécurité)

  • Alain Pirotte

    (IFSTTAR/DEST - Département Économie et Sociologie des Transports - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - PRES Université Paris-Est)

Abstract

This study analyses the impacts of changes in fares, service supply, income and other factors on the demand for public transport on the basis of panels of English counties and French urban areas. The analysis is based on dynamic econometric models, so that both short- and long-run elasticities are estimated. Conventional approaches (i.e. fixed- and random-effect models) rely on the hypothesis that elasticities are the same for all areas. Having shown that this hypothesis is not valid for these data sets, the heterogeneity amongst areas is accounted for using a random-coefficients approach, and Bayesian shrinkage estimators. Estimated elasticities for France and England are compared, by using a common set of variables, similar time period and a common methodology. The results show a considerable variation in elasticities among areas within each country. The major conclusion is that public transport demand is relatively sensitive to fare changes, so that policy measures aimed at fare reduction (subsidisation) can play a substantial role in encouraging the use of public transport, thus reducing the use of private cars.
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Suggested Citation

  • Georges Bresson & Joyce Dargay & Jean-Loup Madre & Alain Pirotte, 2003. "The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators," Post-Print hal-04103120, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04103120
    DOI: 10.1016/s0965-8564(03)00009-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & James M. Griffin & Alain Pirotte, 2003. "Homogeneous, heterogeneous or shrinkage estimators? Some empirical evidence from French regional gasoline consumption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 795-811, November.
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    6. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2002. "Comparison of forecast performance for homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators: Some empirical evidence from US electricity and natural-gas consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 375-382, August.
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