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Hanehalkı Tüketim Harcamalarının Mikroekonometrik Analizi: LAD-LASSO Yöntemi

Author

Listed:
  • Kadriye Hilal Topal

    (Nişantaşı Üniversitesi, Meslek Yüksekokulu, Bilgisayar Programcılığı Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)

  • Ebru Çağlayan Akay

    (Marmara Üniversitesi, İktisat Fakültesi, Ekonometri Bölümü, İstanbul, Türkiye)

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, denetimli makine öğrenmesi yöntemlerinin aşırı değer ve uzun kuyruklu hatalara sahip Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi Hane veri setinin ilgili değişkenlerini seçmemize nasıl yardımcı olduğunu incelemek ve Türkiye’nin Hanehalkı TüketimHarcamaları’nın tahmininde en iyitahmin ve öngörü performansına sahip olanmodelin belirlenmesinisağlamaktır. Bu amaçla, 2018 yılı Türkiye’nin Hanehalkı Bütçe Anketi Hane veri seti klasik regresyon yönteminin yanı sıra En Küçük Mutlak Sapma (LAD), En Küçük Mutlak Küçültme ve Seçim Operatörü (LASSO) ve LAD-LASSO yöntemleri kullanılarak incelenmiş ve yöntemlerin tahmin ve öngörü performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre; uzun kuyruklu hataların varlığında dayanıklı tahminciler elde edilirken aynı zamanda değişken seçimine olanak sağlayan LAD-LASSO makine öğrenmesi yönteminin tahmin performansı ve öngörü açıklığı açısından en başarılı yöntem olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca gelir, tasarruf ve hane halkı büyüklüğü gibi bazı temel değişkenler tüm modeller için hanehalkı tüketim harcamalarını artırmaktadır. Bu değişkenlere ek olarak odanın yapısı, mutfak, banyo zeminleri, ısıtma, klima tercihleri, kullanılan enerji kaynakları, müstakil ev, apartman, yazlık, bağ sahipliği ve yatırım tercihleri, kredi kartı kullanımı, internet alışveriş alışkanlıkları gibi çeşitli değişkenler LAD-LASSO modelinde hane halkı tüketim harcamalarının belirleyicileri olarak seçilmiştir. Çalışma sonuçlarından, makine öğrenme algoritmalarının mikroekonometrik modellerin oluşturulması sırasında gerekli değişkenlerin seçiminde kullanılabileceğine dair bulgular elde edilmiştir. Bu çalışma doktora tezinden üretilmiştir.

Suggested Citation

  • Kadriye Hilal Topal & Ebru Çağlayan Akay, 2020. "Hanehalkı Tüketim Harcamalarının Mikroekonometrik Analizi: LAD-LASSO Yöntemi," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(33), pages 13-31, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:ekoist:v:0:y:2020:i:33:p:13-31
    DOI: 10.26650/ekoist.2020.33.843564
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    References listed on IDEAS

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