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Benford’s Law as an Instrument for Fraud Detection in Surveys Using the Data of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)

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  • Schräpler Jörg-Peter

    (Chair of Social Science Data Analysis, Ruhr-University Bochum, Gebäude GB1/131, Universitätsstr. 150, 44801 Bochum, Germany, and DIW Berlin)

Abstract

This paper focuses on fraud detection in surveys using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data as an example for testing newly methods proposed here. A statistical theorem referred to as Benford’s Law states that in many sets of numerical data, the significant digits are not uniformly distributed, as one might expect, but adhere to a certain logarithmic probability function. In order to detect fraud, we derive several requirements that should, according to this law, be fulfilled in the case of survey data.We show that in several SOEP subsamples, Benford’s Law holds for the available continuous data. For this analysis, we developed a measure that reflects the plausibility of the digit distribution in interviewer clusters. We are thus able to demonstrate that several interviews that were known to have been fabricated and therefore deleted in the original user data set can now be detected using this method. Furthermore, in one subsample, we use this method to identify a case of an interviewer falsifying ten interviews not previously detected by the fieldwork organization.

Suggested Citation

  • Schräpler Jörg-Peter, 2011. "Benford’s Law as an Instrument for Fraud Detection in Surveys Using the Data of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(5-6), pages 685-718, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:231:y:2011:i:5-6:p:685-718
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2011-5-609
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karl‐Heinz Tödter, 2009. "Benford's Law as an Indicator of Fraud in Economics," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(3), pages 339-351, August.
    2. Schräpler Jörg-Peter, 2011. "Benford’s Law as an Instrument for Fraud Detection in Surveys Using the Data of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(5-6), pages 685-718, October.
    3. Lolbert, Tamás, 2008. "On the non-existence of a general Benford's law," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 103-106, March.
    4. Andreas Diekmann, 2007. "Not the First Digit! Using Benford's Law to Detect Fraudulent Scientif ic Data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 321-329.
    5. Engel, Hans-Andreas & Leuenberger, Christoph, 2003. "Benford's law for exponential random variables," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 361-365, July.
    6. repec:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:339-351 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andreas Diekmann, 2002. "Diagnose von Fehlerquellen und methodische Qualität in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung [Sources of Bias and Quality of Data in Social Science Research]," ITA manu:scripts 02_04, Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA).
    8. Andreas Diekmann, 2005. "Not the First Digit! Using Benford’s Law to Detect Fraudulent Scientific Data," Others 0507001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    10. Bredl, Sebastian & Winker, Peter & Kötschau, Kerstin, 2008. "A statistical approach to detect cheating interviewers," Discussion Papers 39, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
    11. Jörg-Peter Schräpler & Gert Wagner, 1999. "Das "Interviewer-Panel" des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels: Darstellung und ausgewählte Analysen," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 184, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
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    1. Schräpler Jörg-Peter, 2011. "Benford’s Law as an Instrument for Fraud Detection in Surveys Using the Data of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(5-6), pages 685-718, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Falsification; data quality; Benford’s Law; SOEP; Falsification; data quality; Benford’s Law; SOEP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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