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Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data

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  • Stephen C. Smith

    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • Sungil Kwak

    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

Abstract

We introduce new approaches to research on poverty traps, focusing on changes in patterns of equilibria over time and across regions, applied to the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey. We revisit the incidence of multiple equilibria using new nonparametric techniques; we also emphasize conditions of single equilibria that remain stagnant below the poverty line. We identify a single equilibrium in our initial interval (1994 - 1999) but and evidence that a second, higher equilibrium is emerging in the subsequent (1999 - 2004) interval. One of three major regions exhibits a deeply impoverished equilibrium that does not improve despite a national environment of pro-poor growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen C. Smith & Sungil Kwak, 2011. "Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data," Working Papers 2011-01, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2011-01
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    2. Arunachalam, Raj & Shenoy, Ajay, 2017. "Poverty traps, convergence, and the dynamics of household income," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 215-230.
    3. Iritani, Satoko, 2018. "Livestock holdings during and after 2011 drought in Ethiopia: Heterogeneous responses and livestock types," MPRA Paper 86528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hill, Daniel, 2020. "Technology heterogeneity and poverty traps: A latent class approach to technology gap drivers of chronic poverty," 2020 Conference (64th), February 12-14, 2020, Perth, Western Australia 305253, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Ram Fishman & Stephen C. Smith & Vida Bobic & Munshi Sulaiman, 2022. "Can Agricultural Extension and Input Support Be Discontinued? Evidence from a Randomized Phaseout in Uganda," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1273-1288, November.
    6. Janz, Teresa & Augsburg, Britta & Gassmann, Franziska & Nimeh, Zina, 2023. "Leaving no one behind: Urban poverty traps in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    7. John K. Pattison‐Williams & Philippe Marcoul & Sandeep Mohapatra, 2023. "Intrahousehold moral hazard frictions and household poverty traps in rural India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 67-96, January.
    8. Barrett, Christopher B. & Santos, Paulo, 2014. "The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 48-54.
    9. Sandeep Mohapatra, 2021. "A new approach for detecting multiple‐equilibria poverty traps," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 894-909, July.
    10. Stephen Smith, 2016. "The Two Fragilities: Vulnerability to Conflict,Environmental Stress, and Their Interactions as Challenges to Ending Poverty," Working Papers 2016-1, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    11. Bapu Vaitla & Jennifer Denno Cissé & Joanna Upton & Girmay Tesfay & Nigussie Abadi & Daniel Maxwell, 2020. "How the choice of food security indicators affects the assessment of resilience—an example from northern Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(1), pages 137-150, February.
    12. Dylan Fitz & Shyam Gouri Suresh, 2021. "Poverty traps across levels of aggregation," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(4), pages 909-953, October.
    13. M. Shahe Emran & Virginia Robano & Stephen C. Smith, 2014. "Assessing the Frontiers of Ultrapoverty Reduction: Evidence from Challenging the Frontiers of Poverty Reduction/Targeting the Ultra-poor, an Innovative Program in Bangladesh," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(2), pages 339-380.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    poverty trap; Ethiopia; multiple equilibria; asset dynamics; regional poverty; sequence of equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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