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A Test of Fischer's Theory of Monetary Misperceptions and the Business Cycle in the Presence of Long-Term Contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Charles W. Bischoff

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

  • Steven C. Hine

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

Abstract

This article uses multi-period ex ante anticipations of money supply growth to estimate the parameters of a model, suggested by Stanley Fischer, in which money affects real variables only through multi-period errors in anticipations. This model is tested against an alternative, first evaluated empirically by Robert Barro, in which money affects real variables only through single period errors in anticipations. The two models are compared using the "P" test procedure for non-nested models suggested by Davidson and MacKinnon. The small sample properties of the test are unknown. Random experiments are performed to approximate these properties. On the basis of estimated small scale distributions, the Fischer model rejects the Barro model at conventional levels, but is not rejected by it.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles W. Bischoff & Steven C. Hine, 1992. "A Test of Fischer's Theory of Monetary Misperceptions and the Business Cycle in the Presence of Long-Term Contracts," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 99-110, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:18:y:1992:i:1:p:99-110
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Cycle; Monetary; Money; Supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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