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International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics

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  • Binder, Michael
  • Offermanns, Christian J.

Abstract

We revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we make use of a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country's international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions; furthermore, long-run exchange rate equilibria may have little relation to purchasing power parity outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality.

Suggested Citation

  • Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2014. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Papers 2014/23, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201423
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    Cited by:

    1. Lenkei, Balint & Mustafa, Ghulam & Vecchi, Michela, 2018. "Growth in emerging economies: Is there a role for education?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 240-253.
    2. Michael Binder & Georgios Georgiadis, 2010. "Determinants of Human Development: Insights from State-Dependent Panel Models," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-24, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    3. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2010. "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," CSAE Working Paper Series 2010-32, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. Michael Binder & Marcel Bluhm, 2010. "On the Conditional Effects of IMF Program Participation on Output Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 3161, CESifo.
    5. Carl Grekou, 2015. "Currency misalignments and economic growth: the foreign currency-denominated debt channel," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-23, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Carbonero, Francesco & Offermanns, Christian J. & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "The fall of the labour income share: the role of technological change and imperfect labour markets," IAB-Discussion Paper 201728, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Francesco Carbonero & Christian Offermanns & Enzo Weber, 2017. "The Trend in Labour Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Imperfect Labour Markets," Working Papers 173, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    8. Offermanns, Christian J., 2014. "On the degree of homogeneity in dynamic heterogeneous panel data models," Discussion Papers 2014/25, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    9. Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2014. "Globalization and international business cycle dynamics: A conditional GVAR approach," Discussion Papers 2014/24, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," IMF Working Papers 2012/012, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Markus Eberhardt, 2011. "Panel time-series modeling: New tools for analyzing xt data," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2011 22, Stata Users Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate determination; international financial integration; dynamic panel data models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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