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Efectos de Shocks al Precio del Petróleo sobre la Economía de Chile y sus Socios Comerciales

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  • Michael Pedersen
  • Miguel Ricaurte

Abstract

With the objective of evaluating the impact of oil price shocks on the Chilean economy, this paper applies the sign restriction methodology to impulse-response functions in order to distinguish the effects of different types of shocks, namely supply, demand, or oil-specific demand. It also applies the exercise to the aggregate trade partners (TP) of Chile, as well as its four main TPs: China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan. The main results are the following. Consumer price indices increase both for Chile and its TPs in response to oil supply and world demand shocks, while they differ for oil-specific demand shocks. On the other hand, oil supply problems have a negative impact on Chilean output, but null effect on its TPs. The behavior of interest rates points at differences between Chile and its TPs. Regarding the nominal exchange rate, it depreciates for Chile when the oil price increases due to supply or oil-specific demand shocks, and it appreciates in response to an increase in world demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Pedersen & Miguel Ricaurte, 2013. "Efectos de Shocks al Precio del Petróleo sobre la Economía de Chile y sus Socios Comerciales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 691, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:691
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_691.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Ximena Chavarro & Eliana González, 2015. "Commodity Price Shocks and Inflation within an Optimal Monetary Policy Framwork: the case of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 203-249, July-Dece.
    2. Eduardo Saucedo & Jorge González, 2019. "Efecto de los precios del petróleo en la actividad económica sectorial de México. Análisis para el periodo 2002-2018," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(2), pages 221-243, Abril-Jun.
    3. Michael Pedersen, 2016. "Propagation of inflationary shocks in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 19(3), pages 004-025, December.

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