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Foreign aid, debt interest repayments and Dutch disease effects in a real exchange rate model for African countries

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  • Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan
  • Pentecost, Eric J.
  • Stack, Marie M.

Abstract

The international competitiveness of developing countries is integral to their economic development; hence understanding the main determinants of the real exchange rate is important. The empirical literature supports the Dutch disease hypothesis that foreign aid inflows significantly contribute to a real appreciation of African currencies, but these studies do not account for the downward pressure on the exchange rate from foreign currency payments. Using a panel of sub-Saharan African countries from 1980 to 2017, we test the hypothesis that the real exchange rate appreciation from aid inflows is moderated by interest repayments on external debt. Our findings suggest that one-third of the Dutch disease effect of aid inflows on the real exchange rate is offset by external debt interest repayments. These findings are important in showing that countries with external debt servicing obligations can mitigate the Dutch disease effect of aid inflows on competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Pentecost, Eric J. & Stack, Marie M., 2023. "Foreign aid, debt interest repayments and Dutch disease effects in a real exchange rate model for African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323002468
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106434
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    1. Jasnine Mogem Kouam & Luc Nembot Ndeffo & Mathurin Aimé Mekam Pouatcha, 2023. "The long and short run effects of foreign direct investment on economic complexity in Sub-Saharan African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(3), pages 1421-1433.
    2. Nell, Kevin, 2023. "Inflation and growth in developing economies: A tribute to Professor Thirlwall," MPRA Paper 118757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; Foreign aid; Debt interest repayments; Panel cointegration; African economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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