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A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico

Author

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  • Andres–Escayola, Erik
  • Berganza, Juan Carlos
  • Campos, Rodolfo G.
  • Molina, Luis

Abstract

This paper describes the set of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models that Banco de España uses to project GDP growth rates and to simulate macrofinancial risk scenarios for Brazil and Mexico. The toolkit consists of large benchmark models to produce baseline projections and various smaller satellite models to conduct risk scenarios. We showcase the use of this modeling framework with tailored empirical applications. Given the material importance of Brazil and Mexico to the Spanish economy and banking system, this toolkit contributes to the monitoring of Spain’s international risk exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres–Escayola, Erik & Berganza, Juan Carlos & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Molina, Luis, 2023. "A BVAR toolkit to assess macrofinancial risks in Brazil and Mexico," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:4:y:2023:i:1:s2666143822000333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2022.100079
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    Cited by:

    1. Diakonova, Marina & Molina, Luis & Mueller, Hannes & Pérez, Javier J. & Rauh, Christopher, 2024. "The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    2. Araujo, Gustavo Silva & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2023. "Machine learning methods for inflation forecasting in Brazil: New contenders versus classical models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic projections; Risk scenarios; Bayesian vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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