IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/212004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deflationary Dynamics in Hong Kong: Evidence from Linear and Neural Network Regime Switching Models

Author

Listed:
  • Paul D. McNelis

    (Georgetown University)

  • Carrie K.C. Chan

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper examines Deflationary dynamics in Hong Kong with a linear and a nonlinear neural-network regime-switching (NNRS) model. The NNRS model is superior to the linear model in terms of in-sample specification tests as well as out-of-sample forecasting accuracy. As befitting a small and highly open economy, the most important variables affecting inflation and deflation turn out to be the growth rates of import prices and wealth (captured by the rates of growth of residential property prices). The NNRS model indicates that the likelihood of moving out of deflation has been steadily increasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul D. McNelis & Carrie K.C. Chan, 2004. "Deflationary Dynamics in Hong Kong: Evidence from Linear and Neural Network Regime Switching Models," Working Papers 212004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:212004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/241/ub_full_0_2_95_wp200421_text.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 221-229, March.
    2. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    3. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    6. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    7. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross‐Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    8. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. "Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
    9. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    10. Olan Henry, 1998. "Modelling the asymmetry of stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 145-153.
    11. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    12. Brockman, Paul & Chung, Dennis Y., 1998. "Inter- and intra-day liquidity patterns on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 277-298, December.
    13. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam & Lipson, Marc L, 1994. "Transactions, Volume, and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 631-651.
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Modeling the Impacts of Market Activity on Bid-Ask Spreads in the Option Market," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6rp7g17q, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    15. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    16. Chris Brooks & Olan T. Henry & Gita Persand, 2002. "The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 333-352, April.
    17. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    18. Jonathan M. Karpoff, 1988. "Costly Short Sales And The Correlation Of Returns With Volume," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 173-188, September.
    19. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    20. Epps, Thomas W, 1975. "Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 586-597, September.
    21. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    22. Adián R. Pagan & Hernán Sabau, 1992. "Consistency tests for heteroskedastic and risk models," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(1), pages 3-30.
    23. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    24. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    25. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2205-2223 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Steven Freund & Gwendolyn P. Webb, 1999. "Recent Growth In Nasdaq Trading Volume And Its Relation To Market Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 489-501, December.
    27. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    28. Senchack, A. J. & Starks, Laura T., 1993. "Short-Sale Restrictions and Market Reaction to Short-Interest Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 177-194, June.
    29. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
    30. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    31. Suominen, Matti, 2001. "Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 545-565, December.
    32. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ólan T. Henry & Michael McKenzie, 2006. "The Impact of Short Selling on the Price-Volume Relationship: Evidence from Hong Kong," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 671-692, March.
    2. Doojin RYU & Hyein SHIM, 2017. "Intraday Dynamics of Asset Returns, Trading Activities, and Implied Volatilities: A Trivariate GARCH Framework," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 45-61, June.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    5. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sarika Mahajan & Balwinder Singh, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock Price-Volume Relationship in Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, July.
    7. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    8. Pramod Kumar Naik & Puja Padhi, 2015. "Stock Market Volatility and Equity Trading Volume: Empirical Examination from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC)," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(5_suppl), pages 28-45, October.
    9. Karaa, Rabaa & Slim, Skander & Hmaied, Dorra Mezzez, 2018. "Trading intensity and the volume-volatility relationship on the Tunis Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 88-99.
    10. Hisham Al Refai & Gazi Mainul Hassan, 2018. "The Impact of Market-wide Volatility on Time-varying Risk: Evidence from Qatar Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 239-258, August.
    11. de Goeij, P. C. & Marquering, W., 2004. "Modeling the conditional covariance between stock and bond returns : A multivariate GARCH approach," Other publications TiSEM 94fe5ada-715a-4339-b94c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    13. Zhao, Yixiu & Upreti, Vineet & Cai, Yuzhi, 2021. "Stock returns, quantile autocorrelation, and volatility forecasting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Bucevska Vesna, 2013. "An Empirical Evaluation of GARCH Models in Value-at-Risk Estimation: Evidence from the Macedonian Stock Exchange," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 4(1), pages 49-64, March.
    15. Wu, Guojun & Xiao, Zhijie, 2002. "A generalized partially linear model of asymmetric volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 287-319, August.
    16. Dohyun Chun & Donggyu Kim, 2022. "State Heterogeneity Analysis of Financial Volatility using high‐frequency Financial Data," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 105-124, January.
    17. Chris Brooks & Ólan T. Henry, 2002. "The Impact of News on Measures of Undiversifiable Risk: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 487-507, December.
    18. Ming-Hsien Chen & Vivian Tai, 2014. "The price discovery of day trading activities in futures market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 217-239, July.
    19. Henryk Gurgul & Roland Mestel & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2007. "Distribution of volume on the American stock market," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 1, pages 143-163.
    20. Mazzotta, Stefano, 2008. "How important is asymmetric covariance for the risk premium of international assets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1636-1647, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:212004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.