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Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring

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Listed:
  • Simplice A. Asongu

    (African Governance and Development Institute)

  • Jacinta C. Nwachukwu

    (University of Huddersfield)

Abstract

The paper examines whether the Arab Spring phenomenon was predictable by complete elimination in the dispersion of core demands for better governance, more jobs, and stable consumer prices. A methodological innovation of the generalized methods of moments is employed to assess the feasibility and timing of the revolution. The empirical evidence reveals that from a projection date of 2007, the Arab Spring was foreseeable between 2011 and 2012. The paper contributes at the same time to the empirics of predicting revolutions and the scarce literature on modeling the future of socioeconomic events. Caveats and cautions are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 439-482, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:51:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-015-1013-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-015-1013-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arab Spring; Political instability; Timing; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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    1. Revolution empirics: predicting the Arab Spring (Emp Econ 2016) in ReplicationWiki

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