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Time-varying beta risk of Pan-European industry portfolios: A comparison of alternative modeling techniques

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  • Sascha Mergner
  • Jan Bulla

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-varying behavior of systematic risk for 18 pan-European sectors. Using weekly data over the period 1987-2005, six different modeling techniques in addition to the standard constant coefficient model are employed: a bivariate t-GARCH(1,1) model, two Kalman filter (KF)-based approaches, a bivariate stochastic volatility model estimated via the efficient Monte Carlo likelihood technique as well as two Markov switching models. A comparison of ex-ante forecast performances of the different models indicate that the random walk process in connection with the KF is the preferred model to describe and forecast the time-varying behavior of sector betas in a European context.

Suggested Citation

  • Sascha Mergner & Jan Bulla, 2008. "Time-varying beta risk of Pan-European industry portfolios: A comparison of alternative modeling techniques," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 771-802.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:14:y:2008:i:8:p:771-802
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470802173396
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time-varying beta risk; Kalman filter; bivariate t-GARCH; stochastic volatility; efficient Monte Carlo likelihood; Markov switching; European industry portfolios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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