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El efecto de las reformas estructurales en el crecimiento económico de la América Latina y el Caribe. Una estimación empírica

Author

Listed:
  • Escaith, Hubert

    (División de Desorrollo Económico, CEPAL)

  • Morley, Samuel

    (Instituto Internacional de Investigación de Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI))

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric evaluation of the impact on the growth rate of trade and capital account liberalization, tax and financial sector reform and privatization starting from a statistical model estimated using data from 17 countries in Latin America for the period 1970-1996. The results show that growth was responsive to investment in physical and human capital and was positively related to a stable macroeconomic environment. In the aggregate, the reforms did not have a significant direct imact on the growth rate, because the different components of the reform package have offsetting effects. Tax reform has a positive and lasting impact on growth, as does capital account liberalization. The other reforms, in particular, trade reform do not seem to have a robust or significant impact on growth beyond the effect the may have trough the other variables in the model. Whe also find that the speed of reform matters a lot the more rapid the implementation of reform, the slower the growth rate.// Este ensayo presenta una evaluación econométrica del efecto en la tasa del crecimiento de la liberación de la cuenta comercial y la cuenta de capital, la reforma fiscal y financiera y la privatización partiendo de un modelo estadístico estimado con datos de 17 países latinoamericanos para el periodo de 1970-1996. Los resultados muestran que el crecimiento económico respondió a la inversión en capital físico y humano y se relacionó positivamente con un ambiente macroeconómico estable. En conjunto, las reformas no tuvieron un efecto directo significativo en la tasa del crecimiento económico, por que los diversos componentes del paquete de reforma tuvieron resultados opuestos. La reforma tributaria tiene un efecto positivo y duradero en la tasa del crecimiento económico, al igual que la liberación de la cuenta de capital. Las demás reformas, en particular la comercial, no parecen tener un efecto robusto o significativo en el crecimiento económico, fuera del efecto que puedan tener por medio de las otras variables del modelo. Encontramos también que la rapidez de la reforma importa mucho: cuanto más sea la aplicación de la reforma mas lenta será la tasa del crecimiento económico.

Suggested Citation

  • Escaith, Hubert & Morley, Samuel, 2001. "El efecto de las reformas estructurales en el crecimiento económico de la América Latina y el Caribe. Una estimación empírica," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(272), pages 469-513, octubre-d.
    • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:68:y:2001:i:272:p:469-513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela Dutrénit & Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Martín Puchet & Eduardo Moreno, 2014. "Economic growth, innovation and inequality in Latin America: improvements, setbacks and pending issues post-Washington Consensus," Chapters, in: Gabriela Dutrénit & Judith Sutz (ed.), National Innovation Systems, Social Inclusion and Development, chapter 11, pages 304-348, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. José Antonio Ocampo, 2004. "Latin America's Growth and Equity Frustrations During Structural Reforms," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 67-88, Spring.
    3. Escaith, Hubert, 2005. "Alternative measures of potential economic growth in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 3555, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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