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The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics

Economics Working Paper Archive

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Content

2022

66936 Take-up of Social Benefits
by Ko, Wonsik & Moffitt, Robert
66933 The Return to Work in Disablity Programs: What Has Been Learned and Next Steps
by Moffitt, Robert & Gregory, Jesse
66918 The Supplemental Expenditure Poverty Measure: A New Method for Measuring Poverty
by Moffitt, Robert
66677 Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data
by Moffitt, Robert A. & Abowd, John & Bollinger, Christopher & Carr, Michael & Hokayem, Charles & McKinney, Kevin & Wiemers, Emily & Ziliak, James
66674 The Marginal Labor Supply Disincentives of Welfare: Evidence from Administrative Barriers to Participation
by Moffitt, Robert A. & Zahn, Matthew V.

2021

66667 Currency Wars, Trade Wars and Global Demand
by Jeanne, Olivier
66655 Rounding the corners of the trilemma: A simple framework
by Jeanne, Olivier
64577 Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Estimates of the Natural Rate
by Ball, Laurence
64575 Refining Set-Identification in VARs through Independence
by Drautzburg, Thorsten & Wright, Jonathan H
64330 Identification of Causal Models with Unobservables: A Self-Report Approach
by Hu, Yingyao

2020

64317 COVID-19 and the U.S. Social Safety Net
by Moffitt, Robert & Ziliak, James

2018

65832 Deferred acceptance and regret-free truth-telling
by Fernandez, Marcelo Ariel

2017

66890 Imposing Commitment to Rein in Overconfidence in Learning
[Implications of Overconfidence on Information Investment]
by Fernandez, Marcelo Ariel & Mayskaya, Tatiana & Nikandrova, Arina
64578 The Econometrics of Unobservables -- Latent Variable and Measurement Error Models and Their Applications in Empirical Industrial Organization and Labor Economics
[The Econometrics of Unobservables]
by Hu, Yingyao

2014

64574 The Economic Value of Breaking Bad: Misbehavior, Schooling and the Labor Market
by Papageorge, Nicholas & Ronda, Victor & Zheng, Yu

2013

608 Inventory Behavior with Permanent Sales Shocks
by Louis Maccini
607 The Case for Four Percent Inflation
by Laurence Ball

2012

66656 To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?
by Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon
606 Okun's Law: Fit at 50?
by Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani
605 Informational Loss in Bundled Bargainings
by Ying Chen & Hï¿½lya Eraslan
604 The U.S. Employment-Population Reversal in the 2000s: Facts and Explanations
by Robert A. Moffitt
603 Mandatory Versus Discretionary Spending: the Status Quo Effect
by T. Renee Bowen & Ying Chen & Hï¿½lya Eraslan
602 Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects
by Christopher Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer
601 Evaluating Mergers for Coordinated Effects and the Role of 'Parallel Accommodating Conduct'
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.
600 The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions
by Yuriy Kitsul & Jonathan H. Wright
599 Forecasting interest rates
by Gregory R. Duffee
598 Bond pricing and the macroeconomy
by Gregory R. Duffee
597 Implications of Wealth Heterogeneity For Macroeconomics
by Christopher D. Carroll
596 Online Appendix: Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the U.S. Unemployment Rate
by Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu
595 Misclassification Errors and the Underestimation of the U.S. Unemployment Rate
by Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu
594 Estimating a Model of Strategic Network Choice: The Convenience-Store Industry in Okinawa
by Mitsukuni Nishida
593 Expected Maharam-Types and Lyapunov's Theorem for Vector Measures on Banach Spaces
by M. Ali Khan & Nobusumi Sagara
592 Expected Multi-Utility Representations
by Edi Karni & Tsogbadral Galaabaatar
591 "Reverse Bayesianism": A Choice-Based Theory of Growing Awareness
by Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Vierø
590 Ambiguity Attitudes and Social Interactions: An Experimental Investigation
by Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin
589 Ben Bernanke and the Zero Bound
by Laurence Ball
588 A Theory of Tacit Collusion
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.
587 Signaling and Tacit Collusion in an Infinitely Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr. & Wei Zhao

2011

586 The Shapley-Folkman Theorem and the Range of a Bounded Measure: An Elementary and Unified Treatment
by M. Ali Khan & Kali P. Rath
585 On Large Games with a Bio-Social Typology
by M. Ali Khan & Kali P. Rath & Yeneng Sun & Haomiao Yu
584 Estimating Explaining Reallocation's Apparent Negative Contribution to Growth
by Mitsukuni Nishida & Amil Petrin & Sašo Polanec
583 Estimating Production Functions with Robustness Against Errors in the Proxy Variables
by Guofang Huang & Yingyao Hu
582 Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean
by Laurence Ball & Nicolás De Roux & Marc Hofstetter
581 Nonparametric Identification Using Instrumental Variables: Sufficient Conditions For Completeness
by Yingyao Hu & Ji-Liang Shiu
580 Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession
by Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder
579 An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Anti-Poverty Programs in the United States
by Yonatan Ben-Shalom & Robert Moffitt & John Karl Scholz
578 Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings in the U.S., 1970-2004
by Robert Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk
577 Information in (and not in) the term structure
by Greg Duffee
576 Forecasting with the term structure: The role of no-arbitrage restrictions
by Greg Duffee
573 Corporate Leniency with Private Information: The Push of Prosecution and the Pull of Pre-emption
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.

2010

575 Sharpe ratios in term structure models
by Greg Duffee
574 "Shooting the Messenger?" The Impact of Short Sale Bans in Times of Crisis
by Ian Appel & Caroline Fohlin
572 Objective and Subjective Expected Utility with Incomplete Preferences
by Tsogbadral Galaabaatar & Edi Karni
571 Estimation of cost synergies from mergers without cost data: Application to U.S. radio
by Przemyslaw Jeziorski
570 Merger enforcement in two-sided markets
by Przemyslaw Jeziorski
569 What Makes them Click: Empirical Analysis of Consumer Demand for Search Advertising
by Przemyslaw Jeziorski & Ilya Segal
567 Asymptotic Distribution of JIVE in a Heteroskedastic IV Regression with Many Instruments
by Chao & Swanson & Hausman & Newey & Woutersen
565 Posted Pricing as a Plus Factor
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.
564 Horizontal Mergers of Online Firms: Structural Estimation and Competitive Effects
by Yonghong An & Michael R. Baye & Yingyao Hu & John Morgan & Matt Shum
563 Rhetoric in Legislative Bargaining with Asymmetric Information
by Ying Chen & Hï¿½lya Eraslan
562 Uniqueness of Stationary Equilibrium Payoffs in Coalitional Bargaining
by Andrew McLennan & Hï¿½lya Eraslan
561 Misclassification errors and the underestimation of U.S. unemployment rates
by Shuaizhang Feng & Yingyao Hu
560 Nonparametric Learning Rules from Bandit Experiments: The Eyes have it!
by Yingyao Hu & Yutaka Kayaba & Matt Shum
559 Signaling and Tacit Collusion in an Infinitely Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr. & Wei Zhao
558 A Simple Estimator for Dynamic Models with Serially Correlated Unobservables
by Yingyao Hu & Matthew Shum & Wei Tan
557 Identification and Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Unobserved Covariates
by Ji-Liang Shiu & Yingyao Hu

2009

566 Instrumental Variable Estimation with Heteroskedasticity and Many Instruments
by Hausman & Newey & Woutersen & Chao & Swanson
556 Well-Posedness of Measurement Error Models for Self-Reported Data
by Yonghong An & Yingyao Hu
555 Private Monitoring and Communication in Cartels: Explaining Recent Collusive Practices
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr. & Andrzej Skrzypacz
554 Estimation of Nonlinear Models with Mismeasured Regressors Using Marginal Information
by Yingyao Hu & Geert Ridder
553 Nonparametric Identification of Auction Models with Non-Separable Unobserved Heterogeneity
by Yingyao Hu & David McAdams & Matthew Shum
552 On the Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment: New Experimental Evidence Regarding Linda
by Edi Karni
551 A Mechanism for Thawing the Credit Markets
by Edi Karni
550 A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making
by Edi Karni
549 When Does a Self-Serving Antitrust Authority Act in Society's Best Interests?
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.

2008

568 Nonstationary Oblivious Equilibrium
by C. L. Benkard & P. Jeziorski & B. Van Roy & G. Y. Weintraub
548 The Impact of a Corporate Leniency Program on Antitrust Enforcement and Cartelization
by Myong-Hun Chang & Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.
547 Strategic Voting over Strategic Proposals
by Philip Bond & Hulya Eraslan
546 Identifying Dynamic Games with Serially-Correlated Unobservables
by Yingyao Hu & Matthew Shum
545 The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Cyclicality of Marginal Cost
by Sandeep Mazumder
544 Endogenous Cartel Formation with Heterogeneous Firms
by Iwan Bos & Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.
543 Nonparametric Identification of Dynamic Models with Unobserved State Variables
by Yingyao Hu & Matthew Shum
542 International Evidence On Sticky Consumption Growth
by Christopher D. Carroll & Jiri Slacalek & Martin Sommer
537 Avoiding Market Dominance: Product Compatibility in Markets with Network Effects
by Jiawei Chen & Ulrich Doraszelski & Joseph E. Harrington, Jr.

2007

541 Estimating First-Price Auctions with an Unknown Number of Bidders: A Misclassification Approach
by Yingyao Hu & Matthew Shum
540 Identifying the Returns to Lying When the Truth is Unobserved
by Yingyao Hu & Arthur Lewbel
539 Estimating Marginal Treatment Effects in Heterogeneous Populations
by Robert Moffit
538 Dynamic time series binary choice
by Robert M. de Jong & Tiemen Woutersen
536 Which Nonlinearity in the Phillips Curve? The Absence of Accelerating Deflation in Japan
by Emmanuel De Veirman

2006

535 How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach
by Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek
532 Modelling the Birth and Death of Cartels with an Application to Evaluating Antitrust Policy
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr
531 How Do Cartels Operate?
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr
530 Precautionary Saving and Precautionary Wealth
by Christopher D. Carroll & Miles S. Kimball

2005

534 Welfare Work Requirements with Paternalistic Government Preferences
by Robert Moffitt
529 Innovators, Imitators, and the Evolving Architecture of Social Networks
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr
528 he Impact of the Corporate Leniency Program on Cartel Formation and the Cartel Price Path
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr & Joe Chen
527 Optimal Corporate Leniency Programs
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr
526 Detecting Cartels
by Joseph E. Harrington, Jr
525 Estimating a Semi-Parametric Duration Model without Specifying Heterogeneity
by Tiemen Woutersen & Jerry Hausman
524 Foundations of Bayesian Theory
by Edi Karni
523 Subjective Expected Utility Theory without States of the World
by Edi Karni
522 Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation
by Thomas Lubik & Wing Teo
521 A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics
by Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide
520 The Method of Endogenous Gridpoints for Solving Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems
by Christopher Carroll
519 A New Approach to Modeling Decision-Making under Uncertainty and Defining Subjective Probabilities
by Edi Karni

2004

518 A Note on Instability and Indeterminacy in Search and Matching Models
by Thomas Lubik & Michael Krause
517 Theoretical Foundations of Buffer Stock Saving
by Christopher D. Carroll
516 Some Foundations for Multiplicative Habits Models
by Ryoji Hiraguchi
515 Agent-Based Models of Organizations
by Myong-Hun Chang & Joseph E Harrington Jr
513 On-the-Job Search and the Cyclical Dynamics of the Labor Market
by Thomas Lubik & Michael Krause
511 Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan
by Daniel Leigh
509 Collusion under Monitoring of Sales
by Joseph E Harrington & Jr Andrzej Skrzypacz
506 Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Free Lunch?
by Marc Hofstetter

2003

505 Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation
by Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide
504 The (Ir)relevance of Real Wage Rigidity in the New Keynesian Model with Search Frictions
by Thomas Lubik & Michael Krause
503 Nonlinear Pricing with Self-Control Preferences
by Matt Shum & S Esteban & E Miyagawa
502 Monopoly Quality Degradation in Cable Television
by Matt Shum & G Crawford
501 Nonparametric Tests for Common Values in First-Price Auctions
by Matt Shum & Phil Haile & Han Hong
500 An Inventory of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model
by Thomas Lubik & Massimiliano Marzo
497 Media as Watchdogs: The Role of News Media in Electoral Competition
by Jimmy Chan & Wing Suen
496 The Role of Non-Financial Factors in Exit and Entry in the TANF Program
by Robert Moffitt
493 Industrial Structure and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy
by Thomas Lubik
492 Moral Sentiments and Social Choice: Fairness Considerations in University Admissions
by Edi Karni & Zvi Safra
491 Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies
by Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis
490 Investment Spending,Equilibrium Indeterminacy and the Interactions of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
by Thomas Lubik

2002

514 Cartel Pricing Dynamics with Cost Variability and Endogenous Buyer Detection
by Joseph E Harrington Jr & Joe Chen
512 The Interest Rate Learning and Inventory Investment
by Bartholomew Moore & Louis J Maccini & Huntley Schaller
489 Discovery and Diffusion of Knowledge in an Endogenous Social Network
by Myong-Hun Chang & Joseph E Harrington Jr
488 Post-Cartel Pricing during Litigation
by Joseph E Harrington Jr
487 Cartel Pricing Dynamics in the Presence of an Antitrust Authority
by Joseph E Harrington Jr
486 Milton Friedman, the Negative Income Tax, and the Evolution of US Welfare Policy
by Robert Moffitt
485 Supply Shocks and the Persistence of Inflation
by Martin Sommer
484 Exact Arbitrage and Portfolio Analysis in Large Asset Markets
by M Ali Khan & Yeneng Sun
483 Exact Arbitrage Well-Diversified Potfolios and Asset Pricing in Large Markets
by M Ali Khan & Yeneng Sun
482 Non-Cooperative Games with Many Players
by M Ali Khan & Yeneng Sun
481 Short-run Money Demand
by Laurence Ball
480 Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
by Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide
479 Admission Impossible? Self Interest and Affirmative Action
by Jimmy Chan & Erik Eyster
477 Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters
by Christopher D Carroll
476 Externalities of Non-Cooperative Tax Policy in the Globally Integrated Market
by Akinori Tomohara
475 The NAIRU in Theory and Practice
by Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw
474 Learning Hypothesis Testing and Nash Equilibrium
by Peyton Young
473 Inventories Employment and Hours
by Marzio Galeotti & Louis J Maccini & Fabio Schiantarelli
472 Greenspan and the Greenbook
by Robert Tchaidze
436 Rates of Information Aggregation in Common Value Auctions
by Han Hong & Matthew Shum

2001

478 Intergenerational Risk Sharing in the Spirit of Arrow Debreu and Rawls with Applications to Social Security Design
by Laurence Ball & N Gregory Mankiw
469 A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration
by Jushan Bai & Serena Ng
468 Can Sticky Prices Account for the Variations and Persistence in Real Exchange Rates?
by Serena Ng
467 A New Look at Panel Testing of Stationarity and the PPP Hypothesis
by Jushan Bai & Serena Ng
466 PPP May not Hold After all: A Further Investigation
by Serena Ng & Pierre Perron
465 The Fed and the New Economy
by Laurence Ball & Robert R Tchaidze
464 Economic Effects of Means-Tested Transfers in the US
by Robert Moffitt
463 The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program
by Robert Moffitt
462 The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations
by Christopher D Carroll
460 Optimal Cartel Pricing in the Presence of an Antitrust Authority
by Joseph E Harrington
459 Empirical Likelihood-Based Selection Criteria for Moment Condition Models
by Han Hong & Bruce Preston & Matthew Shum
458 Sentiment Predictable Income and Habits in the Dynamics of Aggregate Consumption
by Martin Sommer
457 Estimating Taylor Rules in a Real Time Setting
by Robert R Tchaidze
456 Computing Sunspots in Linear Rational Expectations Models
by Thomas A Lubik & Frank Schorfheide
455 Liquidity Constraints and Precautionary Saving
by Christopher D Carroll & Miles S Kimball
454 Durable-Goods Oligopoly with Secondary Markets: Theory and an Empirical Application to the Automobile Market
by Susanna Esteban & Matthew Shum
453 Econometric Models of Asymmetric Ascending Auctions
by Han Hong & Matthew Shum
450 Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve
by Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt
449 Sutton on Marshall's Tendencies
by Carl F Christ
448 Firm Adaptation Consumer Sorting and Market Dominance
by Joseph E Harrington Jr
447 Increasing Competition and the Winner's Curse: Evidence from Procurement
by Han Hong & Matthew Shum
446 Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects
by Lawrence Huiyan Zhang
445 Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity To Consume Out of Permanent Income
by Christopher D Carroll
444 Individual Learning About Consumption
by Todd W Allen & Christopher D Carroll
417 A Simple Game-Theoretic Explanation for the Relationship Between Group Size and Helping
by Joseph E Harrington Jr

2000

461 A Semiparametric Estimator for Dynamic Optimization Models
by Han Hong & Matthew Shum
442 Organization of Innovation in a Multi-Unit Firm: Coordinating Adaptive Search on Multiple Rugged Landscapes
by Myong-Hun Chang & Joseph E Harrington
441 On the Non-Existence of Reputation Effects in Two-Person Infinitely-Repeated Games
by Jimmy Chan
437 The Diffusion of Innovations in Social Networks
by H Peyton Young
435 Near-Rationality and Inflation in Two Monetary Regimes
by Laurence Ball
434 Welfare Benefits and Female Headship in US Time Series
by Robert A Moffitt
433 International Comovement Revisited: The Role of Non-Traded Goods and Price Stickiness
by Thomas A Lubik
431 Measuring the Equilibrium Effects of Unemployment Benefits Dispersion
by Aico van Vuuren & Gerard J van den Berg & Geert Ridder
430 Portfolios of the Rich
by Christopher D Carroll
429 'Risky Habits' and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income or How Much Would a Permanent Tax Cut Boost Japanese Consumption?
by Christopher D Carroll
426 Input and Output Inventories
by Brad R Humphreys & Louis J Maccini & Scott Schuh
425 Social Employment Of Welfare Recipients In Belgium: An Evaluation
by Bart Cockx & Geert Ridder
424 Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of an Equilibrium Search Model
by Pierre Konig & Gerard J van der Berg & Geert Ridder
421 Solving Consumption Models with Multiplicative Habits
by Christopher D Carroll
419 Progressive Ambition Electoral Selection and the Creation of Ideologues
by Joseph E Harrington Jr
414 Taxation and the Labor Supply - Decisions of the Affluent
by Robert A Moffitt & Mark Wilhelm
411 Organizational Structure and Perpetual Innovation: A Computational Model of a Retail Chain
by Myong-Hun Chang & Joseph E Harrington Jr
380 A Theory of Rigid Extremists and Flexible Moderates With An Empirical Application To The US Congress
by S Brock Blomberg & Joseph E Harrington Jr

1999

440 Does Banning Affirmative Action Harm College Student Quality
by Jimmy Chan & Erik Eyster
423 On the Impossibility of Predicting the Behavior of Rational Agents
by Dean Foster & H Peyton Young
420 Realized Stock Volatility
by Heiko Ebens
416 Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets
by Christopher D Carroll & Karen E Dynan & Spencer D Krane
415 Social Employment of Welfare Recipients in Belgium: An Evaluation
by Geert Ridder & Bart Cockx
413 Discrete Choice and Stochastic Utility Maximization
by Ruud H Koning & Geert Ridder
398 The Equilibrium Level of Rigidity in a Hierarchy
by Joseph E Harrington Jr

1998

418 Decentralized Business Strategies in a Multi-Unit Firm
by Myong-Hun Chang & Joseph E Harrington Jr
412 Correcting for Selective Compliance in a Re-Employment Bonus Experiment
by Govert Bijwaard & Geert Ridder
409 The Supremum Argument in the New Approach to the Existence of Equilibrium in Vector Lattices
by M Ali Khan & Rabee Tourky & Rajiv Vohra
406 Homeownership Committed Expenditure Risk and the Stockholding Puzzle
by Michael C Fratantoni

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