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In search of climate distress risk

Author

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  • Nguyen, Quyen
  • Diaz-Rainey, Ivan
  • Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda

Abstract

Using the Merton distance to default model we investigate whether a firm's climate risk affects its default (distress) risk. S&P 500 non-financial firms during 2010–2019 are analysed and we employ both corporate carbon footprints and climate risk disclosures in annual filings to measure climate risk. Our results show that climate risk has a negative impact on firms' distance to default. This impact is limited to the disclosure of transition risk in annual filings. In contrast, disclosures of physical or non-specific risk do not affect firm-level default risk, while the impact of corporate carbon footprints is inconsistent but insignificant in most models. We also find that the negative effect of climate transition risk on firms' distance to default is stronger for firms headquartered in states with carbon pricing (California and states covered by the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) and temporarily strengthens because of the Paris Agreement in 2015. However, this ‘Paris’ effect is short-lived and fades away in subsequent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Quyen & Diaz-Rainey, Ivan & Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda, 2023. "In search of climate distress risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:85:y:2023:i:c:s1057521922003945
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102444
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    3. Grundmann, Justus & Silberbach, Anna & Auria, Laura, 2023. "Including carbon taxation risk in Deutsche Bundesbank's in-house credit assessment system (ICAS): An empirical analysis," Technical Papers 02/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    6. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Climate finance; Merton distance to default; Carbon footprint; Climate risk disclosure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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