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Asymmetric Panel Causality Tests with an Application to the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Performance in Scandinavia

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  • Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser

    (Department of Accounting and Finance, College of Business and Economics, UAE University, Al Ain, The United Arab Emirates)

Abstract

Tests for conducting asymmetric Granger causality within a panel system are introduced in this paper. It is shown how the cumulative sums of negative and positive shocks can be constructed to investigate whether the potential causal effects of these shocks are asymmetrical or not within a panel system. These tests can be based on asymptotic or bootstrap distributions. In addition, a test for efficiency gains of the suggested estimation method is introduced. An information criterion is also provided for selecting the optimal lag order in the autoregressive panel model. The suggested methods are applied to assess the impact of contractionary as well as expansionary fiscal policy on the economic performance of the three Scandinavian countries. The results show that allowing for asymmetry in the panel causality testing has important repercussions for the underlying causal inference. Panel test di causalità asimmetrici applicati all’impatto della politica fiscale sulla performance dell’economia in Scandinavia In questo articolo si descrivono test effettuati all’interno di un sistema panel per analizzare la causalità Granger asimmetrica. Viene mostrato come la somma di shock positivi e negativi può essere costruita per valutare se gli effetti causali potenziali di questi shock sono asimmetrici in un sistema panel. Questi test possono essere basati su distribuzioni asintotiche o di ricampionamento. Inoltre, si introduce un test per i guadagni di efficienza del metodo adottato. Viene anche suggerito un criterio di informazione per selezionare l’ordine di intervallo ottimale in un modello panel autoregressivo. Tali metodi sono applicati per valutare l’impatto di una politica fiscale contrattiva o espansiva sull’andamento dell’economia dei tre paesi scandinavi. I risultati mostrano che prendere in considerazione l’asimmetria quando si effettua il panel test di causalità ha importanti ripercussioni sulla sottostante inferenza causale.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Asymmetric Panel Causality Tests with an Application to the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Performance in Scandinavia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 389-404.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0877
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    5. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & Olaolu Richard Olayeni, 2020. "A new perspective into the relationship between CEO pay and firm performance: evidence from Nigeria’s listed firms," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(2), pages 250-277, December.
    6. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    7. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Feng-Li Lin & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Asymmetric Granger Causality between Military Expenditures and Economic Growth in Top Six Defense Suppliers," Working Papers 201565, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Kouton, Jeffrey, 2019. "The asymmetric linkage between energy use and economic growth in selected African countries: Evidence from a nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 475-490.
    9. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2015. "Financial development and energy consumption: Evidence from a heterogeneous panel of Asian countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 430-444.
    10. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Rangan Gupta & Axel Kasongo & Thabo Mboweni & Ndivhuho Netshitenzhe, 2018. "Does tourism cause growth asymmetrically in a panel of G-7 countries? A short note," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-57, February.
    11. Feyza Balan, 2016. "On Asymmetric Causal Relationships In Petropolitics," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(209), pages 7-26, April - J.
    12. Abdulnasser Hatemi‐J & Chi‐Chuan Lee & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Insurance activity and economic performance: Fresh evidence from asymmetric panel causality tests," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 221-240, August.
    13. Emre BULUT & Dilek ÇİL, 2024. "Asymmetric Causality Relationship Between Public Expenditures and Tax Revenues: Transition Economies Case," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 32(60).
    14. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2019. "The Causal Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Development in the UAE: An Asymmetric Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 171-184.
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    17. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Mustafa, Alan, 2016. "A MS-Excel Module to Transform an Integrated Variable into Cumulative Partial Sums for Negative and Positive Components with and without Deterministic Trend Parts," MPRA Paper 73813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Yi Chen & Feng-Li Lin & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Asymmetric causality between military expenditures and economic growth in top six defense spenders," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1193-1207, May.
    19. Vladim r Hajko, 2015. "Energy-Gross Domestic Product Nexus: Disaggregated Analysis for the Czech Republic in the Post-Transformation Era," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 869-888.
    20. Veli Yilanci & Onder Ozgur & Muhammed Sehid Gorus, 2021. "Stock prices and economic activity nexus in OECD countries: new evidence from an asymmetric panel Granger causality test in the frequency domain," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric Causality; Panel; Fiscal Policy; Scandinavia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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