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Identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in small open economies: Empirical evidence from African countries

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  • Ahmad, A.H.
  • Pentecost, Eric J.

Abstract

This paper uses a tri-variate structural VAR with a long-run identification scheme, akin to the Blanchard and Quah method, to identify external and domestic supply and demand shocks in 22 African countries between 1980 and 2005. Domestic supply shocks are found to be the most important factor contributing over 70% to output fluctuations in these countries, with external shocks playing a relatively minor role. A partial correlation analysis between the identified shocks and a measure of the fiscal policies of the countries revealed that the fiscal policies pursued by most of the countries during the period are counter-cyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad, A.H. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2012. "Identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in small open economies: Empirical evidence from African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 272-291.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:21:y:2012:i:1:p:272-291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.08.004
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    9. Jin, Jang C. & McMillin, W. Douglas, 1994. "Foreign output and price shocks and macroeconomic activity in Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 443-455.
    10. Ahmed, Shaghil & Park, Jae Ha, 1994. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-36.
    11. Ahmad, A.H. & Harvey, David I. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2011. "Exchange rate regime verification: An alternative method of testing for regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 96-98, October.
    12. Diallo, Oumar, 2009. "Tortuous road toward countercyclical fiscal policy: Lessons from democratized sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 36-50.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Barišić, Patrik & Kovač, Tibor & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2023. "More than just supply and demand: Macroeconomic shock decomposition in Croatia during and after the transition period," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 420-438.
    3. Elguellab, Ali & Ezzahid, Elhadj, 2023. "Dissecting the Moroccan business cycle: A trade-based identification of agricultural supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2023. "Long-run and short-run impact of the U.S. economy on stock, bond and housing markets: An evaluation of U.S. and six major economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 211-232.
    5. Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2015. "Government expenditure in India: Composition, cyclicality and multipliers," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-032, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    6. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    7. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Chang, Tsangyao & Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Ranjbar, Omid, 2014. "Are GDP fluctuations transitory or permanent in African countries? Sequential Panel Selection Method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 380-399.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Abdurrahman Nazif Catik & Mohamad Husam Helmi & Faek Menla Ali & Mohammad Tajik, 2016. "The Bank Lending Channel in a Dual Banking System: Evidence from Malaysia," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1557, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Ngomba Bodi, Francis Ghislain, 2018. "Contributions relatives des chocs de demande agrégée et d’offre agrégée aux fluctuations de la croissance réelle en zone CEMAC [Relative contributions of aggregate demand and supply shocks to busin," MPRA Paper 116376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Abdul Jalil, 2021. "Drivers of Inflation: From Roots to Regressions," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2021:38, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    12. Ashima Goyal & Bhavyaa Sharma, 2018. "Government Expenditure in India: Composition and Multipliers," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 47-85, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    African countries; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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