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Correcting “Beyond the Cycle": Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances

Author

Listed:
  • Miss Estelle X Liu
  • Mr. Todd D. Mattina
  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Abstract

This paper outlines an operational approach for incorporating the impact of asset price cycles in the calculation of structural fiscal balances (SFBs). The global financial crisis demonstrated that movements in asset prices can have an important fiscal impact. Failing to account for the fiscal impact of asset price cycles can encourage a pro-cyclical policy stance if temporarily high revenues are passed through into expenditures. In addition, over-estimating the SFB may lead to inadequate fiscal buffers when cyclical revenues eventually dissipate. The paper proposes an empirical approach to correct for asset prices and provides illustrative country results for selected OECD countries. We find that asset price cycles are imperfectly synchronized with the business cycle and are quantitatively significant with an average pre-crisis fiscal impact ranging from about ½ to 2 percent of GDP in the sample. For a number of countries, the pre-crisis fiscal impact of high asset prices was larger at about 4 percent of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Estelle X Liu & Mr. Todd D. Mattina & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2015. "Correcting “Beyond the Cycle": Accounting for Asset Prices in Structural Fiscal Balances," IMF Working Papers 2015/109, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David Cronin & Kieran McQuinn, 2023. "The housing net worth channel and the public finances: evidence from a European country panel," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1251-1265, October.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 851-862, December.
    3. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    4. Kasselaki, Maria Th. & Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 53-106.
    5. Roumeen Islam, 2017. "Growth after Crisis in Europe: An Interdependence of Macroeconomic and Structural Policies," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 11(2), pages 19-62, December.
    6. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián & de Castro, Francisco, 2016. "Do Spanish fiscal regimes follow the euro-area trends? Evidence from Markov-Switching fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 484-494.
    7. Agust n S. B n trix & Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Financial Cycles and Fiscal Cycles," Trinity Economics Papers tep0815, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

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