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Have Credit Card Services Become Important to Monetary Aggregation? An Application of Sign Restricted Bayesian VAR

Author

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  • William A. Barnett

    (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA and Center for Financial Stability, New York City, NY 10036, USA)

  • Hyun Park

    (Department of Economics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70123, USA)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the relationship among a primary set of economic variables, including two types of monetary aggregates: simple sum M2 and credit-card-augmented Divisia inside money services. The importance of that comparison has grown as the use of credit cards in purchase transactions has expanded. The data period includes the Great Recession, which was heavily associated with finance and thereby especially relevant to this study. The basic methodology in this paper is VAR-Sign Restrictions estimation. VAR is a well-known method to analyze inter-dependency among economic variables. By applying VAR-Sign Restrictions, we analyze how economic variables behave, positively or negatively, toward differently defined shocks. Imposing signs on the direction of economic variable responses to shocks is based on economic prior beliefs, using Bayesian estimation. Our results provide deeper insights into the relative merits of the two types of monetary aggregates as indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Barnett & Hyun Park, 2023. "Have Credit Card Services Become Important to Monetary Aggregation? An Application of Sign Restricted Bayesian VAR," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202304, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:202304
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    File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2023Papers/202304.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barnett, William A. & Su, Liting, 2019. "Risk Adjustment Of The Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(S1), pages 90-114, September.
    2. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
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    5. William A. Barnett, 2000. "New Indices of Money Supply and the Flexible Laurent Demand System," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 325-359, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
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    8. K. Alec Chrystal & Ronald MacDonald, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the recent behavior and usefulness of simple-sum and weighted measures of the money stock," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 73-109.
    9. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    10. Barnett, William & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Su, Liting, 2016. "Nowcasting nominal gdp with the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," MPRA Paper 73246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    12. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva‐Leon & Liting Su, 2024. "The Credit‐Card‐Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(5), pages 1163-1202, August.
    13. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    14. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Economic Monetary Aggregates: An Application of Index Number and Aggregation Theory," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 11-48, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    15. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric & Kourtellos, Andros, 2010. "Regression models with mixed sampling frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 246-261, October.
    16. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-283, May.
    17. Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2014. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates, the Great Ratios, and Classical Money Demand Functions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 229-241, February.
    18. Barnett, William A. & Su, Liting, 2017. "Data sources for the credit-card augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 899-910.
    19. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    20. Liu, Jinan & Dery, Cosmas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Recent monetary policy and the credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    21. Barnett, William & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Su, Liting, 2016. "Nowcasting Nominal GDP with the Credit-Card Augmented Divisia Monetary," Studies in Applied Economics 59, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    22. Ghysels, Eric, 2016. "Macroeconomics and the reality of mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 294-314.
    23. William A Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7580, December.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregate; VAR; Sign Restrictions; Bayesian Estimation; Mixed-Frequency VAR; aggregation theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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