IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecnote/v48y2019i1n12120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

External Cyclicality in the Face of Aggregate Demand Shocks: Pros and Cons Across Developed and Developing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Magda Kandil

Abstract

The paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the external sector and underlying components and distinguishes between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across advanced and developing countries. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. Based on time‐series correlations, there is a stronger cyclical co‐movement between the trade and current account balances across advanced countries, compared to developing countries. Further, fluctuations in the financial balance are dependent on developments in exports in many developing countries. The determinants of external vulnerability vary with macroeconomic indicators. The evidence points to higher vulnerability of the external balance with respect to higher trend inflation across developing countries. In addition, constraints on capacity in developing countries could risk external stability as trend growth increases across countries. Government spending is an important determinant of external stability in developing countries, reflecting the adverse implications of higher government spending and a widening fiscal deficit on debt sustainability and external financial flows. Further, private consumption is a key driver of aggregate uncertainty and cyclical fluctuations in the external balances across developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Magda Kandil, 2019. "External Cyclicality in the Face of Aggregate Demand Shocks: Pros and Cons Across Developed and Developing Countries," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(1), February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:48:y:2019:i:1:n:12120
    DOI: 10.1111/ecno.12120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecno.12120
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ecno.12120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kandil, Magda, 1998. "Supply-Side Asymmetry and the Non-Neutrality of Demand Fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 785-809, October.
    2. Magda Kandil, 2002. "Asymmetry In Economic Fluctuations In The Us Economy: The Pre-War And The 1946-1991 Periods Compared," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 21-42.
    3. Beaudry, Paul & Saito, Makoto, 1998. "Estimating the effects of monetary shocks: An evaluation of different approaches," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 241-260, July.
    4. Adrian Pagan, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "The Political Economy of Budget Deficits," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    6. Magda Kandil, 2002. "Asymmetry in the Effects of Monetary and Government Spending Shocks: Contrasting Evidence and Implications," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 288-313, April.
    7. Engle, Robert F., 1982. "A general approach to lagrange multiplier model diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 83-104, October.
    8. James Cover & David Hoose, 2002. "Asymmetric wage indexation," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(1), pages 34-47, March.
    9. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
    10. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    12. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
    13. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1994. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 247-261, March.
    14. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    15. Magda Kandil, 1999. "The asymmetric stabilizing effects of price flexibility: historical evidence and implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(7), pages 825-839.
    16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    17. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
    18. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-278, May.
    19. Gray, Jo Anna, 1978. "On Indexation and Contract Length," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-18, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kandil, Magda, 2017. "Crowding out or crowding in? Correlations of spending components within and across countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1254-1273.
    2. Kandil, Magda, 2007. "The wage-price spiral: International evidence and implications," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 212-240.
    3. Kandil, Magda, 2009. "Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 261-276.
    4. Magda Kandil, 2016. "On the relationship between public and private spending in developing and developed countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 165-191, March.
    5. Magda Kandil, 2009. "Public Spending and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 8(2), pages 133-158, August.
    6. Magda Kandil, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of demand shocks: international evidence on determinants and implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2127-2145.
    7. Kandil, Magda, 1998. "Supply-Side Asymmetry and the Non-Neutrality of Demand Fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 785-809, October.
    8. Magda Kandil, 2019. "Variation in nominal and real effective exchange rates: evidence across developed and developing countries," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 181-219, June.
    9. Magda Kandil, 2002. "Asymmetry In Economic Fluctuations In The Us Economy: The Pre-War And The 1946-1991 Periods Compared," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 21-42.
    10. Magda Kandil, 2005. "On the Effects of Government Spending Shocks in Developing Countries," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 269-304.
    11. Ahrens, Steffen & Pirschel, Inske & Snower, Dennis J., 2017. "A theory of price adjustment under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 78-95.
    12. Kandil, Magda, 2001. "Asymmetry in the effects of us government spending shocks: evidence and implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 137-165.
    13. Kandil, Magda, 2006. "Variation in the effects of government spending shocks with methods of financing: Evidence from the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 463-486.
    14. Magda Kandil, 2006. "Asymmetric Effects Of Aggregate Demand Shocks Across U.S. Industries: Evidence And Implications," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 259-283, Spring.
    15. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-065 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kandil, Magda & Woods, Jeffrey G., 2002. "Convergence of the gender gap over the business cycle: a sectoral investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 271-292.
    17. Magda Kandil, 2001. "Variation in the Effects of Aggregate Demand Shocks: Evidence and Implications across Industrial Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(3), pages 552-577, January.
    18. Kandil, Magda & Mirzaie, Aghdas, 2002. "Exchange rate fluctuations and disaggregated economic activity in the US: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-31, February.
    19. Magda Kandil, 2010. "Demand shocks and the cyclical behavior of the real wage: Some international evidence," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 13, pages 135-158, May.
    20. Randall E. Parker & Philip Rothman, 2004. "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre--World War I and Interwar Periods," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 88-100, January.
    21. Magda Kandil, 2009. "Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 45-69, January-J.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:48:y:2019:i:1:n:12120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.