IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v5y2025i1d10.1007_s43546-024-00770-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility interdependencies of cryptocurrencies, gold, oil, and US stocks: quantile connectedness analysis with intraday data

Author

Listed:
  • OlaOluwa S. Yaya

    (University of Ibadan
    Centre for Econometrics and Applied Research)

  • Derick D. Quintino

    (VALORIZA—Research Center for Endogenous Resource Valorization
    Federal University of Lavras)

  • Cristiane M. Ogino

    (University of São Paulo (CEPEA\ESALQ\USP)
    Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo)

  • Olanrewaju I. Shittu

    (University of Ibadan)

  • Dora M. F. Almeida

    (VALORIZA—Research Center for Endogenous Resource Valorization
    Universidade de Évora
    Portalegre Polytechnic University)

  • Paulo J. S. Ferreira

    (VALORIZA—Research Center for Endogenous Resource Valorization
    Universidade de Évora
    Portalegre Polytechnic University)

Abstract

The financial market is constantly affected by extreme events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which have significantly impacted commodity prices and market conditions. To better understand the behaviour of prices in different market situations, particularly at the bull and bear market states, this study investigates the interdependencies of volatility between cryptocurrencies, gold, oil, and US stocks by employing the quantile dynamic connectedness method and computing the Net total connectedness (NET) and the Total Connectedness Index (TCI) measures for bear, bull, and normal market situations. As a differential, it used intraday data from 2018 to 2022 to characterise relationships among these market situations. The NET measure indicates that Ethereum and Bitcoin are net transmitters of shocks in different quantile values. At the same time, Brent, gold, and SP500 showed to be net shock receivers in most situations, except for gold in quantiles 0.6–0.7 and 0.95 and SP500 in quantiles 0.9–0.95. Further, shocks are not transmitted between Bitcoin and Ethereum at any phase of the market. Regarding TCI, the results show that the different markets are strongly connected in extreme situations, mainly in the bull market. These findings into the distinct behaviors under extreme quantiles provide valuable implications for portfolio diversification and risk management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Derick D. Quintino & Cristiane M. Ogino & Olanrewaju I. Shittu & Dora M. F. Almeida & Paulo J. S. Ferreira, 2025. "Volatility interdependencies of cryptocurrencies, gold, oil, and US stocks: quantile connectedness analysis with intraday data," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s43546-024-00770-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-024-00770-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-024-00770-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-024-00770-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed Mohamed Habib & Umar Nawaz Kayani, 2024. "Price reaction of global economic indicators: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Behnam Zakeri & Katsia Paulavets & Leonardo Barreto-Gomez & Luis Gomez Echeverri & Shonali Pachauri & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Caroline Zimm & Joeri Rogelj & Felix Creutzig & Diana Ürge-Vorsatz & David G. , 2022. "Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Nautiyal, Neeraj & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ghardallou, Wafa & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Is the impact of oil shocks more pronounced during extreme market conditions?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. Liu, Xiaoxing & Shehzad, Khurram & Kocak, Emrah & Zaman, Umer, 2022. "Dynamic correlations and portfolio implications across stock and commodity markets before and during the COVID-19 era: A key role of gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    6. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Corbet, Shaen, 2024. "Evaluating the dynamic connectedness of financial assets and bank indices during black-swan events: A Quantile-VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Gabauer, David, 2021. "Dynamic measures of asymmetric & pairwise connectedness within an optimal currency area: Evidence from the ERM I system," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    9. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Olubusoye, Olusanya E., 2019. "How persistent and dynamic inter-dependent are pricing of Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies before and after 2017/18 crash?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).
    10. Liao, Jianhui & Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers across oil, gold and stock markets in the presence of major public health emergencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Günay, Samet, 2020. "Co-movements and spillovers of oil and renewable firms under extreme conditions: New evidence from negative WTI prices during COVID-19," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    12. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2021. "Stock markets’ reaction to Covid-19: Moderating role of national culture," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    13. Parthajit Kayal & Moinak Maiti, 2023. "Examining the asymmetric information flow between pairs of gold, silver, and oil: a transfer entropy approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "How fearful are commodities and US stocks in response to global fear? Persistence and cointegration analyses," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Farid, Saqib & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Nepal, Rabindra, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the quantile connectedness between energy, metals and agriculture commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    16. Yener, Coskun & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2023. "Stock Market Responses to COVID-19: The Behaviors of Mean Reversion, Dependence and Persistence," MPRA Paper 117002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Arfaoui, Nadia & Yousaf, Imran & Jareño, Francisco, 2023. "Return and volatility connectedness between gold and energy markets: Evidence from the pre- and post-COVID vaccination phases," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 617-634.
    18. Valadkhani, Abbas & Nguyen, Jeremy & Chiah, Mardy, 2022. "When is gold an effective hedge against inflation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
    20. Thomas J. Fisher & Colin M. Gallagher, 2012. "New Weighted Portmanteau Statistics for Time Series Goodness of Fit Testing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(498), pages 777-787, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cagli, Efe Caglar, 2023. "The volatility spillover between battery metals and future mobility stocks: Evidence from the time-varying frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    2. Furuoka, Fumitaka & Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Ling, Pui Kiew & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh & Islam, M. Nazmul, 2023. "Transmission of risks between energy and agricultural commodities: Frequency time-varying VAR, asymmetry and portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Corbet, Shaen, 2024. "Quantifying spillovers and connectedness among commodities and cryptocurrencies: Evidence from a Quantile-VAR analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    4. Asafo-Adjei, Emmanuel & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2024. "Risk synchronization in Australia stock market: A sector analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 582-610.
    5. Cunado, Juncal & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Hardik, Marfatia, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers across precious metals and oil realized volatilities: Evidence from quantile extended joint connectedness measures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    6. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    7. Ha, Le Thanh & Bouteska, Ahmed & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & The Anh, Pham, 2023. "Fluctuations in gold prices in Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a time-varying parameter autoregression model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    8. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Lang, Chunlin & Hu, Yang & Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Dynamic return connectedness between commodities and travel & leisure ETFs: Investment strategies and portfolio implications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    10. Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Gabauer, David, 2023. "Contemporaneous and lagged R2 decomposed connectedness approach: New evidence from the energy futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    11. Yousaf, Imran & Arfaoui, Nadia & Gubareva, Mariya, 2024. "Spillovers and hedging effectiveness between oil and US equity sectors: Evidence from the COVID pre- and post-vaccination phases," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2022. "On the Propagation Mechanism of International Real Interest Rate Spillovers: Evidence from More than 200 Years of Data," Working Papers 202212, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness among the implied volatilities of oil prices and financial assets: New evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 114-123.
    17. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Gul, Raazia & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Karim, Sitara & Lucey, Brian M., 2024. "Tail risk spillovers between Shanghai oil and other markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    18. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis, 2023. "Are benchmark stock indices, precious metals or cryptocurrencies efficient hedges against crises?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md Rafayet & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Gold-backed cryptocurrencies: A hedging tool against categorical and regional financial stress," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s43546-024-00770-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.