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Buffered Autoregressive Models With Conditional Heteroscedasticity: An Application to Exchange Rates

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  • Ke Zhu
  • Wai Keung Li
  • Philip L. H. Yu

Abstract

This article introduces a new model called the buffered autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (BAR-GARCH). The proposed model, as an extension of the BAR model in Li et al. (2015), can capture the buffering phenomena of time series in both the conditional mean and variance. Thus, it provides us a new way to study the nonlinearity of time series. Compared with the existing AR-GARCH and threshold AR-GARCH models, an application to several exchange rates highlights the importance of the BAR-GARCH model.

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  • Ke Zhu & Wai Keung Li & Philip L. H. Yu, 2017. "Buffered Autoregressive Models With Conditional Heteroscedasticity: An Application to Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 528-542, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:35:y:2017:i:4:p:528-542
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2015.1123634
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    1. Wang, Guochang & Zhu, Ke & Li, Guodong & Li, Wai Keung, 2022. "Hybrid quantile estimation for asymmetric power GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 264-284.
    2. Belarbi, Yacine & Hamdi, Fayçal & Khalfi, Abderaouf & Souam, Saïd, 2021. "Growth, institutions and oil dependence: A buffered threshold panel approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Cathy W. S. Chen & Sangyeol Lee & K. Khamthong, 2021. "Bayesian inference of nonlinear hysteretic integer-valued GARCH models for disease counts," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 261-281, March.
    4. Wenshan Wang & Xinyuan Song & Guichen Han & Kai Yang, 2025. "Bayesian empirical likelihood inference and order shrinkage for a hysteretic autoregressive model," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 1-26, February.
    5. Guochang Wang & Ke Zhu & Guodong Li & Wai Keung Li, 2019. "Hybrid quantile estimation for asymmetric power GARCH models," Papers 1911.09343, arXiv.org.
    6. Mengya Liu & Qi Li & Fukang Zhu, 2020. "Self-excited hysteretic negative binomial autoregression," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(3), pages 385-415, September.
    7. Cathy W. S. Chen & Cindy T. H. Chien, 2024. "Improving Quantile Forecasts via Realized Double Hysteretic GARCH Model in Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(6), pages 3447-3471, December.
    8. Cathy W. S. Chen & Hong Than-Thi & Manabu Asai, 2021. "On a Bivariate Hysteretic AR-GARCH Model with Conditional Asymmetry in Correlations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 413-433, August.
    9. Cathy W. S. Chen & Edward M. H. Lin & Tara F. J. Huang, 2022. "Bayesian quantile forecasting via the realized hysteretic GARCH model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1317-1337, November.
    10. Karl-Heinz Schild & Karsten Schweikert, 2019. "On the Validity of Tests for Asymmetry in Residual-Based Threshold Cointegration Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, March.
    11. Tong, Howell, 2015. "Threshold models in time series analysis—Some reflections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 485-491.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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