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The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis

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  • Robert A. Blecker

Abstract

This article analyses the effects of the real value of the dollar on investment in US domestic manufacturing using aggregate data for 1973-2004. Econometric estimation shows a negative effect that is much larger than has been found in any previous study. The exchange rate affects investment mainly, although not exclusively, through the channel of financial or liquidity constraints, rather than by affecting the desired stock of capital. Counterfactual simulations show that US manufacturing investment would have been 61% higher and the capital stock would have been 17% higher in 2004 if the dollar had not appreciated after 1995.

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  • Robert A. Blecker, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Dollar Appreciation for US Manufacturing Investment: A Time-Series Analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 491-517.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:21:y:2007:i:4:p:491-517
    DOI: 10.1080/02692170701474595
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    1. Do Prices Matter?
      by JW Mason in The Slack Wire on 2011-04-17 06:16:00

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    Cited by:

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    2. Thomas I. Palley, 2006. "Rethinking Trade and Trade Policy: Gomory, Baumol, and Samuelson on Comparative Advantage," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_86, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Robert Blecker, 2007. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2006," Working Papers wp157, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    4. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial e Crescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidências para Economias em Desenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 12(2), pages 187-213.
    5. Garcia-Jimenez, Carlos I. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2010. "The Effects of Public Debt on Labor Demand in the United States," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56361, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Blecker, Robert A., 2009. "External Shocks, Structural Change, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1979-2007," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1274-1284, July.
    7. Tatiana Evdokimova & Pavel Trunin & Andrei Zubarev, 2013. "The Impact of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate on the Economic Activity in Russia," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 165P, pages 164-164.
    8. Gilberto Lima & Gabriel Porcile, 2013. "Economic growth and income distribution with heterogeneous preferences on the real exchange rate," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 651-674.
    9. Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Celio Hiratuka & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Investment in the Brazilian manufacturing industry and the real exchange rate: An investigation using sectoral-level panel data," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1408, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    10. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2014. "Trade, investment, and capital flows:Mexico's macroeconomic adjustment to the Great Recession," Working Paper Series Sobre México 2014002, Sobre México. Temas en economía.
    11. Thomas Palley, 2007. "Seeking Full Employment Again:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 14-50.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; manufacturing; exchange rate; US dollar; profits; US economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution

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