IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/232008.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Interpretation

Author

Listed:
  • Soyoung Kim

    (Korea University)

  • Jaewoo Lee

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper investigates international macroeconomic fluctuations in light of NOEM (New Open Economy Macroeconomics) models. A model with four major economic disturbances (technology shocks, labor supply shocks, preference shocks, and nominal shocks) is analytically solved to derive theoretical long-run identification restrictions. These restrictions are used to estimate a structural VAR model for the three largest economies (the U.S., the Euro Area, and Japan) over the post Bretton Woods period. The main findings are: (1) the signs of the dynamic responses are mostly consistent with theoretical predictions; (2) supply-side shocks (technology and labor supply shocks) explain most of the fluctuations in cross-country output deviations; (3) preference shocks are the dominant source of real exchange rate fluctuations; and (4) productivity shocks played a prominent role in the recent global imbalances (large U.S. external deficit), while the current account has usually been influenced by all four shocks, with no single shock dominant in all periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyoung Kim & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "International Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A New Open Economy Macroeconomics Interpretation," Working Papers 232008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:232008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/150/ub_full_0_2_192_hkimr-no-23_bw.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pagan, A. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "On Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks and Exogenous Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0662, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    3. Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "Transfer Effect in National Price Levels," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(3), pages 534-556, October.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. Lee, Jaewoo & Chinn, Menzie D., 2006. "Current account and real exchange rate dynamics in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 257-274, March.
    6. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "Productivity, External Balance, and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 117-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "Putting the “New Open Economy Macroeconomics” to a Test," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 4, pages 79-115, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Ghironi, Fabio, 2006. "Macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 428-450, December.
    10. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 5, pages 117-152, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "The Economic Future of Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    13. Hamid Faruqee & Jaewoo Lee, 2009. "Global Dispersion of Current Accounts: Is the Universe Expanding?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(3), pages 574-595, August.
    14. Adrian Pagan & Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks. Working paper #7," NCER Working Paper Series 7, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jaewoo, 2015. "Imbalances over the Pacific," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 173-185.
    2. Saeidinezhad, Elham, 2014. "The International Spillover of Fiscal and Technology Shocks before the Crisis: The case of the UK and Italy," MPRA Paper 98556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2013. "Sources of time-varying trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 117-141.
    4. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    5. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    6. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karamé, Frédéric & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2008. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics: Does theory meet the data?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1041-1087, April.
    2. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128, January.
    3. Justiniano, Alejandro & Preston, Bruce, 2010. "Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-74, May.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Vehbi, Tugrul & Martin, Charlton, 2014. "VAR modelling in the presence of China’s rise : an application to the Taiwanese economy," Working Papers 2014-09, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    5. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2010. "Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(5), pages 924-936, November.
    6. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Yang, Bo, 2021. "Are global spillovers complementary or competitive? Need for international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2007. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1069-1087, May.
    8. Bussière, Matthieu & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini E. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2021. "Current Account Dynamics And The Real Exchange Rate: Disentangling The Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 28-58, January.
    9. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    10. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    11. Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 545-564, April.
    12. Welz, Peter, 2006. "Assessing predetermined expectations in the standard sticky-price model: a Bayesian approach," Working Paper Series 621, European Central Bank.
    13. Kulish, Mariano & Rees, Daniel, 2011. "The yield curve in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 268-279.
    14. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
    15. Riccardo Cristadoro & Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Massimiliano Pisani, 2008. "Real exchange rate volatility and disconnect: an empirical investigation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 660, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Thomas Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2005. "Do Terms of Trade Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 377, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Cooke, Dudley, 2010. "Consumption home bias and exchange rate behavior," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 415-425, March.
    18. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta, Vicente, 2010. "Euro-dollar real exchange rate dynamics in an estimated two-country model: An assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 780-797, April.
    19. Thomas Lubik & Wing Teo, 2005. "Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Economics Working Paper Archive 522, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    20. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta Reátegui, Vicente, 2006. "Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model: What is Important and What is Not," CEPR Discussion Papers 5957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Open Economy Macroeconomics; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:232008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.