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An approach for modelling and forecasting research activity related to an emerging technology

Author

Listed:
  • Iñaki Bildosola

    (University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU))

  • Pilar Gonzalez

    (University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)
    University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU))

  • Paz Moral

    (University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU))

Abstract

The understanding of emerging technologies and the analysis of their development pose a great challenge for decision makers, as being able to assess and forecast technological change enables them to make the most of it. There is a whole field of research focused on this area, called technology forecasting, in which bibliometrics plays an important role. Within that framework, this paper presents a forecasting approach focused on a specific field of technology forecasting: research activity related to an emerging technology. This approach is based on four research fields—bibliometrics, text mining, time series modelling and time series forecasting—and is structured in five interlinked steps that generate a continuous flow of information. The main milestone is the generation of time series that measure the level of research activity and can be used for forecasting. The usefulness of this approach is shown by applying it to an emerging technology: cloud computing. The results enable the technology to be structured into five main sub-technologies which are characterised through five time series. Time series analysis of the trends related to each sub-technology shows that Privacy and Security has been the most active sub-technology to date in this area and is expected to maintain its level of interest in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Iñaki Bildosola & Pilar Gonzalez & Paz Moral, 2017. "An approach for modelling and forecasting research activity related to an emerging technology," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(1), pages 557-572, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:112:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-017-2381-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-017-2381-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zehra Taşkın, 2021. "Forecasting the future of library and information science and its sub-fields," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(2), pages 1527-1551, February.
    2. Zamani, Mehdi & Yalcin, Haydar & Naeini, Ali Bonyadi & Zeba, Gordana & Daim, Tugrul U, 2022. "Developing metrics for emerging technologies: identification and assessment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Block, Carolin & Wustmans, Michael & Laibach, Natalie & Bröring, Stefanie, 2021. "Semantic bridging of patents and scientific publications – The case of an emerging sustainability-oriented technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Porter, Alan L. & Chiavetta, Denise & Newman, Nils C., 2020. "Measuring tech emergence: A contest," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology forecasting; Research-activity forecasting; Bibliometrics; Text mining; Trend analysis; Structural time series models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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