Monetary shock measurement and stock markets

The narrative approach‐based measurement of monetary shocks suggests infrequent shocks are crucial for understanding the impact of monetary policy shocks on the economy. However, the narrative approach is dependent on costly data collection process, researcher judgment, and is prone to delays due to official document release. We present a stock market‐based regime switching unobserved components model to estimate the monetary shocks while preserving the key feature of infrequent shocks. Our estimated shocks are large and comparable to Romer and Romer (2004) shocks. The impulse responses to our estimated monetary policy shocks suggest that a 1% contractionary shock leads to 2% long‐term decline in industrial production with a peak effect of 3.5% decline and more than one percent long‐term decline in CPI.