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Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA

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  • Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz

Abstract

We study the time-varying effects of Tobin’s q and cash flow on investment dynamics in the USA using a vector autoregression model with drifting parameters and stochastic volatilities estimated via Bayesian methods. We find significant variation over time of the response of investment to shocks in both variables. The time-varying sensitivity of investment to a shock in Tobin’s q (cash flow) decreased (increased) since the early 1960s through the early 1980s, increased (decreased) since the early 1980s through the early 2000s, and it has decreased (increased) importantly again since then. Our results show that, although Tobin’s q and cash flow are complementary sources of information for investment decisions, their relative importance for investment dynamics has varied considerably over time, so both variables also represent alternative sources of information for short-run fluctuations in investment.

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  • Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2024_01
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment dynamics; Tobin’s q; cash flow; time-varying parameters; vector autoregression; stochastic volatility JEL Classification: C11; C32; E22; E32; G31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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