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The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany

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  • Fitzenberger, Bernd
  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Bode, Oliver

Abstract

This paper provides new estimates of a time?varying NAIRU for Germany taking account of the structural break caused by German unification based on the Kalman Filter and on a partially linear model as two alternatives. Estimating a standard Phillips curve, the sum of coefficients associated with expected inflation is far beyond unity, whatever measure of expected inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one estimates the unemployment rate that is compatible with a tolerable inflation rate of say 2 percent following roughly the inflation target put forward by the European Central Bank. The estimates presented in this paper suggest that the NAIRU compatible with 2 percent inflation in Germany is currently around 7 percent if the definition of unemployment follows the concept of the ILO. In contrast to the consensus in the literature, our estimates suggest furthermore that the NAIRU in Germany has not increased since the early 1990?s.

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  • Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang & Bode, Oliver, 2007. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-070, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:6890
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    1. Fitzenberger Bernd & Franz Wolfgang & Bode Oliver, 2008. "The Phillips Curve and NAIRU Revisited: New Estimates for Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(5-6), pages 465-496, October.
    2. Kajuth Florian, 2016. "NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 104-125, February.
    3. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Monetary policy and European unemployment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(1), pages 94-108, Spring.
    4. Phiri, Andrew, 2015. "Examining asymmetric effects in the South African Philips curve: Evidence from logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) models," MPRA Paper 64487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
    6. Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2008. "Nach der Reform ist vor der Reform? Eine arbeitsökonomische Analyse ausgewählter Aspekte der Hartz-Reformen," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-011 [rev.], ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
    8. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2007. "Das Erreichte nicht verspielen. Jahresgutachten 2007/08 [The gains must not be squandered. Annual Report 2007/08]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 200708.
    9. Rottmann, Horst & Flaig, Gebhard, 2011. "Labour market institutions and unemployment: An international comparison," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 31, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
    10. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2013. "La NAIRU y la pseudociencia neoliberal," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 16, pages 18-43.
    11. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    12. Smolny Werner, 2009. "Wage Adjustment, Competitiveness and Unemployment – East Germany after Unification," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(2-3), pages 130-145, April.
    13. Wolfgang Pollan, 2012. "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
    14. Schleer, Frauke & Kappler, Marcus, 2014. "The Phillips Curve: (In)stability, the role of credit, and implications for potential output measurement," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-067, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Marcel Garz & Artur Tarassow, 2011. "Does an expanding low-pay sector decrease structural unemployment? Evidence from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201104, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    16. Quaas, Georg & Klein, Mathias, 2010. "Der Beitrag alternativer NAIRU-Kurven zur Erklärung der Inflation [The Contribution of Alternative NAIRU-curves to the Explanation of Inflation]," MPRA Paper 26176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gebhard Flaig & Horst Rottmann, 2013. "Labour market institutions and unemployment: an international panel data analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 635-654, November.
    18. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; unemployment; inflation; Phillips curve; Okun?s Law; German unification; Kalman Filter; partially linear model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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