IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/579.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regional pull vs global push factors: China and US influence on Asia-Pacific financial markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chang Shu
  • Dong He
  • Jinyue Dong
  • Honglin Wang

Abstract

This paper compares spillovers from the US and Chinese financial markets to the rest of Asia-Pacific. Structural VAR analysis points to the growing influence of Chinese equities and currency movements. In normal times China's influence in the equity market has risen to a level close to that of the United States, although the relative impact of the United States became stronger in crisis periods. Nonetheless, China's bond market remains a negligible player. The influence of China may be interpreted as a "regional pull" factor, while that of the United States remains a key "global push" factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang Shu & Dong He & Jinyue Dong & Honglin Wang, 2016. "Regional pull vs global push factors: China and US influence on Asia-Pacific financial markets," BIS Working Papers 579, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:579
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work579.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work579.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    3. Cohen, Benjamin H. & Remolona, Eli M., 2008. "Information flows during the Asian crisis: Evidence from closed-end funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 636-653, June.
    4. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-542, May.
    6. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 126-133, May.
    7. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    8. Chen, Qianying & Filardo, Andrew & He, Dong & Zhu, Feng, 2016. "Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-81.
    9. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    10. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    11. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    12. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    13. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    14. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    15. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    16. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
    17. Boris Hofmann & Elod Takáts, 2015. "International monetary spillovers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    18. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    19. Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
    20. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    21. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    22. Felices, Guillermo & Grisse, Christian & Yang, Jing, 2009. "International financial transmission: emerging and mature markets," Bank of England working papers 373, Bank of England.
    23. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    24. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    25. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    26. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2013. "Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit," Working Papers 152013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    27. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    28. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    29. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    30. McCauley, Robert, 2013. "Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage and Safe Assets," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 145-154.
    31. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    32. Baum, Christopher F. & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2015. "What do Chinese macro announcements tell us about the world economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 100-122.
    33. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    34. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Connolly, Robert A. & Wang, F. Albert, 2003. "International equity market comovements: Economic fundamentals or contagion?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-43, January.
    36. Calvo, Sara & Reinhart, Carmen, 1996. "Capital flows to Latin America : Is there evidence of contagion effects?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1619, The World Bank.
    37. William Cheung & Scott Fung & Shih-Chuan Tsai, 2010. "Global capital market interdependence and spillover effect of credit risk: evidence from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 85-103.
    38. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    39. C. Randall Henning, 2012. "Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series WP12-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    40. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
    42. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2012. "Aggregate Idiosyncratic Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1155-1185, December.
    43. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    44. Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 182014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    45. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    46. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    47. Mr. Ilan Goldfajn & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises: The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 1997/087, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), 1996. "Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets after the Mexican Crisis," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 49, January.
    49. Philip Lane & Sergio Schmukler, 2007. "The Evolving Role of China and India in the Global Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 499-520, September.
    50. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
    51. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    52. Jian Yang & James Kolari & Insik Min, 2003. "Stock market integration and financial crises: the case of Asia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 477-486.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Dosse Toulaboe, 2022. "Cointegration of Equity Markets in Three Country Groups of OECD Countries," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 10(1), pages 11-31.
    3. Robert Neil McCauley & Chang Shu, 2016. "Non-deliverable forwards: impact of currency internationalisation and derivatives reform," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Sayuri Shirai & Eric Alexander Sugandi, 2019. "Cross-Border Portfolio Investment and Financial Markets Development in the Asia and Pacific Region," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(5), pages 14-33, May.
    5. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Dong, Jinyue & Wang, Honglin, 2018. "Regional pull vs global push factors: China and US influence on Asian financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 112-132.
    2. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Chang Shu & Dong He & Honglin Wang & Jinyue Dong, 2015. "The influence of Chinese and US financial markets on Asia-Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Cross-border Financial Linkages: Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability, volume 82, pages 7-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    5. Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Inter- and intra-regional stock market relations for the GCC bloc," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
    7. Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
    8. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    9. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Hwang, Eugene & Min, Hong-Ghi & Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2013. "Determinants of stock market comovements among US and emerging economies during the US financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 338-348.
    11. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2022. "EME financial conditions: Which global shocks matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2013. "Reassessing the link between the Japanese yen and emerging Asian currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-326.
    13. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    14. Boubaker, Sabri & Jouini, Jamel & Lahiani, Amine, 2016. "Financial contagion between the US and selected developed and emerging countries: The case of the subprime crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 14-28.
    15. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    16. Bekaert, Geert & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019. "On the global financial market integration “swoosh” and the trilemma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 227-245.
    17. Elyasiani, Elyas & Kocagil, Ahmet E. & Mansur, Iqbal, 2007. "Information transmission and spillover in currency markets: A generalized variance decomposition analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 312-330, May.
    18. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    19. Michel Beine & Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Helene Raymond, 2008. "International nonlinear causality between stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 663-686.
    20. Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2007. "Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China's impact; spillovers to Asian financial markets; US; structural VAR; sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:579. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.