IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qut/auncer/2010_16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can We Predict Recessions?

Author

Listed:
  • Don Harding

    (La Trobe University)

  • Adrian Pagan

    (QUT and UTS)

Abstract

The fact that the Global Financial Crisis, and the Great Recession it ushered in, was largely unforeseen, has led to the common opinion that macroeconomic models and analysis is deficient in some way. Of course it has probably always been true that businessmen, journalists and politicians have agreed on the proposition that economists can't forecast recessions. Yet we see an enormous published literature that presents results which suggest it is possible to do so, either with some new model or some new estimation method e.g. Kaufman (2010), Galvao (2006), Dueker (2005), Wright (2006) and Moneta (2005). Moreover, there seem to be no shortage of papers still emerging that make claims along these lines. So a question that naturally arises is how one is to reconcile the existence of an expanding literature on predicting recessions with the scepticism noted above?

Suggested Citation

  • Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Can We Predict Recessions?," NCER Working Paper Series 69, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2010_16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo69.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adrian Pagan, 2013. "Patterns and Their Uses," NCER Working Paper Series 96, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
    3. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.
    4. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "Market‐timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 55-64, September.
    5. Nicholas Taylor, 2014. "Economic forecast quality: information timeliness and data vintage effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 145-174, February.
    6. Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    7. Kenny, Geoff & Morgan, Julian, 2011. "Some lessons from the financial crisis for the economic analysis," Occasional Paper Series 130, European Central Bank.
    8. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "A biannual recession-forecasting model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-393.
    9. Jorge Abad & Javier Suarez, 2018. "The Procyclicality of Expected Credit Loss Provisions," Working Papers wp2018_1806, CEMFI.
    10. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Can Macroeconomists Forecast Risk? Event-Based Evidence from the Euro-Area SPF," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 1-46, December.
    11. Tobias F. Rötheli, 2018. "Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(1), pages 121-133, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Financial Crisis; Great Recession;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2010_16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: School of Economics and Finance (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ncerrau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.