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Forecasting the adoption of residential ductless heat pumps

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  • Hlavinka, Alexander N.
  • Mjelde, James W.
  • Dharmasena, Senarath
  • Holland, Christine

Abstract

Energy-efficient technologies have the potential to provide savings to households and utilities, but consumers do not always adopt these innovations over traditional technologies. The ductless heat pump (DHP) is one such technology designed to increase energy efficiency and comfort in space conditioning. DHP adoption by single-family residences in the Pacific Northwest of the United States is investigated by quantifying the effects of utility-provided rebates and expenditures on activities such as advertising and installer training on the number of installations and forecasting installations through 2018. The number of installations is elastic with respect to net installation costs and inelastic with respect to expenditures. Given the proposed rebate budgets, doubling the current rebate is necessary to maximize installations through 2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Hlavinka, Alexander N. & Mjelde, James W. & Dharmasena, Senarath & Holland, Christine, 2016. "Forecasting the adoption of residential ductless heat pumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 60-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:60-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.11.020
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    Cited by:

    1. José Antonio Moya, 2016. "A Natural Analogy to the Diffusion of Energy-Efficient Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.
    2. McCoy, Daire & Curtice, John, 2018. "Exploring the spatial and temporal determinants of gas central heating adoption," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86625, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. McCoy, Daire & Curtis, John, 2018. "Exploring the spatial and temporal determinants of gas central heating adoption," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 64-86.
    4. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Pearce, Joshua M., 2023. "Can grid-tied solar photovoltaics lead to residential heating electrification? A techno-economic case study in the midwestern U.S," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    5. Schill, Wolf-Peter & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2020. "Flexible electricity use for heating in markets with renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    6. Collins, Matthew & Curtis, John, 2017. "Identification of the information gap in residential energy efficiency: How information asymmetry can be mitigated to induce energy efficiency renovations," Papers WP558, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    8. Collins, Matthew & Curtis, John, 2017. "Advertising and investment spillovers in the diffusion of residential energy efficiency renovations," Papers WP569, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Côté, Elizabeth & Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Cristian, 2023. "Preferences of homeowners for heat-pump leasing: Evidence from a choice experiment in France, Germany, and Switzerland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy efficiency; Adoption of innovation; Ductless heat pumps; Rebates; Forecasting; Stochastic simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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