IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/reoecp/v19y2019i4p249-264n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling CAR Export from Slovakia to the United Kingdom - Vector Error Correction Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pitoňáková Renáta

    (Comenius University in Bratislava, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Mlynské luhy 4, 821 05Bratislava, Slovakia)

Abstract

The aim of the article is to identify determinants of export of road vehicles from Slovakia to the United Kingdom. The Error correction model is based on monthly data from January 2008 to November 2018. The modelling identifies short and long-run effects of real effective exchange rate, inflation rate and industrial production on foreign demand of transport equipment. The real effective exchange rate indicates competitiveness of domestic producers towards most important trade partners, inflation rate of Slovakia is a proxy for macroeconomic environment and industrial production of the UK stands in for the income variable. The results suggest that export of road vehicles is in the long-run impacted by exchange rate and industrial production. The appreciation of exchange rate reduces export from SR to the UK while rising income increases foreign demand. In the short-run trading with motor vehicles is impacted by all three explanatory variables. The Error correction term indicates that roughly 30 % of disequilibrium in the previous month will be corrected in the current month. The implications are for governing bodies to manage the current commodity framework which is at present mainly oriented on machinery and transport equipment and to support companies from other industries aiming to create more diversified export commodity structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Pitoňáková Renáta, 2019. "Modelling CAR Export from Slovakia to the United Kingdom - Vector Error Correction Approach," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 249-264, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:19:y:2019:i:4:p:249-264:n:2
    DOI: 10.2478/revecp-2019-0014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2019-0014
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/revecp-2019-0014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    2. Magdalena Olczyk & Aleksandra Kordalska, 2017. "International Competitiveness of Czech Manufacturing - A Sectoral Approach with Error Correction Model," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(2), pages 213-226.
    3. Heinze, Henriette, 2018. "The determinants of German exports: An analysis of intra- and extra-EMU trade," IPE Working Papers 95/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    5. David Havrlant & Roman Hušek, 2011. "Models of Factors Driving the Czech Export," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(3), pages 195-215.
    6. Rahmi Cetin & Robert Ackrill, 2018. "Exports, imports, growth and causality: a study of Slovakia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 395-404, May.
    7. Bruno S. Sergi & Karel Vít, 2004. "How to Rationalize the Export-Saving Paradigm (the Czech experience)," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(2), pages 115-120.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    9. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    10. László Erdey & Andrea Pöstényi, 2017. "Determinants of the Exports of Hungary: Trade Theory and the Gravity Model," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 67(1), pages 77-97, March.
    11. Magdalena Olczyk & Aleksandra Kordalska, 2017. "Determinants of Net Exports in Polish and Czech Manufacturing: A Sectoral Approach with Error Correction Model," Working Papers 46/2017, Institute of Economic Research, revised May 2017.
    12. Dalton, John T. & Goksel, Turkmen, 2013. "Reputation and learning: Japanese car exports to the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 10-23.
    13. Andrej Cieslik & Anna Michalek & Jan Jakub Michalek & Jerzy Mycielski, 2015. "Determinants of Export Performance: Comparison of Central European and Baltic Firms," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 211-229, May.
    14. Jacqueline Karlsson & Helena Melin & Kevin Cullinane, 2018. "The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: an application of the gravity model," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    15. Pramesti Resiandini, 2014. "Japanese and Korean automobile exports and the Alchian-Allen theorem," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 86-98.
    16. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-1294, September.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    18. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nnaemeka Vincent Emodi & Taha Chaiechi & ABM Rabiul Alam Beg, 2018. "The impact of climate change on electricity demand in Australia," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(7), pages 1263-1297, November.
    2. Roberto Martínez-Espiñeira, 2007. "An Estimation of Residential Water Demand Using Co-Integration and Error Correction Techniques," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 161-184, May.
    3. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5.
    4. José M. Belbute & Alfredo M. Pereira, 2021. "The Relationship between Consumption and CO 2 Emissions: Evidence for Portugal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Sunil Sharma & Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Broad money demand and financial liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 417-436.
    6. Caravaggio, Nicola & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2022. "The Italian nominal interest rate conundrum: A problem of growth or public finance?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 313-326.
    7. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    8. Russell Davidson & Victoria Zinde‐Walsh, 2017. "Advances in specification testing," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1595-1631, December.
    9. Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "Causality between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Argentina," MPRA Paper 121799, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Antonios ADAMOPOULOS, 2021. "Energy and economic growth. An empirical analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 151-166, Spring.
    11. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
    12. Benjamin Auer & Frank Schuhmacher, 2013. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Investor sentiment, stock market valuation and merger activity," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 60(2), pages 245-245, June.
    13. Rodrigues, Luciano & Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos Piedade, 2017. "Analyzing light fuel demand elasticities in Brazil using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-331.
    14. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    15. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.
    17. Jeremy B. Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "A note on the cointegration of consumption, income, and wealth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Tom Engsted & Jesper Lund, 1997. "Common stochastic trends in international stock prices and dividends: an example of testing overidentifying restrictions on multiple cointegration vectors," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 659-665.
    19. Zamanipour, Behzad & Ghadaksaz, Hesam & Keppo, Ilkka & Saboohi, Yadollah, 2023. "Electricity supply and demand dynamics in Iran considering climate change-induced stresses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    20. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; Road Vehicles; Cointegration; VECM model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:19:y:2019:i:4:p:249-264:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.